MODEL VERDICT
Sapiens International Corporation N.V. (SPNS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $43.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $43.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $43.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $43.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $43.47 | Below threshold | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $31.69 | -27.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $36.17 | -16.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $33.50 | -22.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $25.11 | -42.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $42.43 | -2.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $25.05 | -42.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $40.73 | -6.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $36.31 | -16.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $33.23 | -23.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $35.44 | -18.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $25.14 | -42.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.50 | -18.3% | 100% | 93 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $39 | $43 | $47 | $52 | $56 |
| Conservative (13%) | $41 | $45 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Base Case (19.9%) | $43 | $48 | $53 | $57 | $62 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $46 | $51 | $56 | $61 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.91 | 39.39 | 19.45 | 47.09 | 11.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.47 | 24.61 | 14.79 | 34.80 | 8.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.08 | 16.64 | 11.86 | 26.22 | 5.73 |
| P/FCF | 26.55 | 26.79 | 20.89 | 33.96 | 4.44 |
| P/FFO | 22.11 | 20.65 | 14.88 | 31.55 | 6.40 |
| P/TBV | 28.34 | 12.33 | 8.52 | 79.44 | 29.68 |
| P/AFFO | 25.72 | 21.35 | 15.50 | 41.25 | 9.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.72 | 3.58 | 2.55 | 5.17 | 0.99 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.13 | 3.13 | 1.91 | 4.17 | 0.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPNS's fair value at $35.50 vs the current price of $43.45, implying -18.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.62 (P10) to $38.81 (P90), with a median of $33.60.
SPNS's current P/E of 33.7x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +29.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.9x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
10 analysts cover SPNS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $38.00 (range: $38.00 — $38.00), implying -12.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SPNS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1340.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.