MODEL VERDICT
1st Source Corporation (SRCE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $73.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $73.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $74.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $73.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $73.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $82.07 | +11.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $63.11 | -14.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $74.96 | +1.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $55.59 | -24.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $81.91 | +10.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $72.57 | -1.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $74.69 | +1.1% | 100% | 100 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $48 | $62 | $75 | $89 | $103 |
| Conservative (10%) | $50 | $64 | $78 | $92 | $107 |
| Base Case (15.3%) | $52 | $67 | $82 | $97 | $112 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $55 | $70 | $86 | $101 | $117 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.47 | 10.92 | 9.67 | 14.53 | 1.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.36 | 9.81 | 8.76 | 12.64 | 1.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.96 | 8.92 | 8.37 | 9.77 | 0.53 |
| P/FCF | 7.57 | 7.57 | 6.78 | 8.62 | 0.58 |
| P/FFO | 9.47 | 9.39 | 8.71 | 10.44 | 0.57 |
| P/TBV | 1.40 | 1.37 | 1.22 | 1.74 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 9.96 | 9.70 | 8.89 | 11.38 | 0.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.11 | 1.56 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.98 | 2.80 | 2.51 | 3.50 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SRCE's fair value at $74.69 vs the current price of $73.86, implying +1.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $74.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.56 (P10) to $76.13 (P90), with a median of $72.31.
SRCE's current P/E of 11.4x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -10.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.5x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
4 analysts cover SRCE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $81.00 (range: $74.00 — $88.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SRCE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20.0% to approximately $74. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.