MODEL VERDICT
S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $44.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $43.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $44.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $43.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $43.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $42.51 | -4.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $43.80 | -1.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $39.95 | -9.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $58.43 | +32.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $42.51 | -4.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $39.63 | -10.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.07 | +4.0% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $37 | $45 | $54 | $62 | $70 |
| Conservative (30%) | $41 | $50 | $59 | $68 | $77 |
| Base Case (45.8%) | $46 | $56 | $66 | $76 | $87 |
| Bull Case (62%) | $51 | $62 | $73 | $85 | $96 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.52 | 11.24 | 8.94 | 46.87 | 13.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.54 | 9.25 | 3.46 | 46.05 | 14.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.65 | 8.78 | 3.19 | 29.26 | 8.38 |
| P/FCF | 10.38 | 8.64 | 5.64 | 21.04 | 5.34 |
| P/FFO | 13.24 | 10.36 | 8.48 | 29.31 | 7.34 |
| P/TBV | 1.52 | 1.47 | 1.26 | 1.97 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 14.38 | 10.58 | 8.84 | 35.05 | 9.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.06 | 1.03 | 0.84 | 1.34 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.05 | 2.66 | 2.41 | 4.27 | 0.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates STBA's fair value at $46.07 vs the current price of $44.28, implying +4.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.62 (P10) to $53.39 (P90), with a median of $45.02.
STBA's current P/E of 12.7x compares to the industry median of 12.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +4.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover STBA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $37.67 (range: $32.00 — $41.00), implying -14.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STBA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3430.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.