MODEL VERDICT
SunOpta Inc. (STKL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $6.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $6.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $6.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $6.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $6.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $1.89 | -70.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $2.59 | -60.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $1.86 | -71.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $1.66 | -74.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $0.92 | -85.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $4.41 | -32.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $5.77 | -11.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $1.70 | -73.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $1.37 | -78.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.04 | -7.1% | 100% | 76 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 42× | 46× | 50× (Current) | 54× | 58× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 129.44 | 82.76 | 19.33 | 399.42 | 138.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.96 | 27.82 | 10.16 | 59.73 | 16.03 |
| P/FCF | 29.17 | 22.33 | 15.56 | 49.61 | 18.02 |
| P/FFO | 28.11 | 25.34 | 7.70 | 54.69 | 21.89 |
| P/TBV | 4.83 | 4.79 | 2.94 | 6.45 | 1.41 |
| P/AFFO | 615.15 | 19.39 | 11.84 | 1814.22 | 1038.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.06 | 2.85 | 1.03 | 5.49 | 1.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.06 | 1.24 | 0.30 | 1.54 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates STKL's fair value at $6.04 vs the current price of $6.50, implying -7.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.11 (P10) to $7.88 (P90), with a median of $5.18.
STKL's current P/E of 50.0x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +250.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
20 analysts cover STKL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.00 (range: $8.00 — $8.00), implying +23.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (15), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for STKL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.