MODEL VERDICT
Stellantis N.V. (STLA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $8.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $10.91 | Pending | -33.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $7.47 | -7.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $85.13 | +952.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $31.79 | +293.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $11.96 | +47.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $1.85 | -77.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $149.02 | +1742.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $113.42 | +1302.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $32.35 | +299.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.35 | +670.8% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $8 | $8 | $8 | $11 | $15 |
| Conservative (5%) | $8 | $8 | $8 | $12 | $15 |
| Base Case (1.4%) | $7 | $7 | $7 | $11 | $15 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $7 | $7 | $7 | $11 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 133.88 | 6.29 | 2.67 | 904.50 | 339.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.38 | 4.23 | 1.22 | 7.62 | 2.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.71 | 1.98 | 1.04 | 5.90 | 1.64 |
| P/FCF | 13.67 | 6.44 | 4.10 | 48.94 | 17.45 |
| P/FFO | 5.24 | 2.83 | 2.12 | 20.47 | 6.72 |
| P/TBV | 20.51 | 4.23 | 1.40 | 99.42 | 38.85 |
| P/AFFO | 8.80 | 5.94 | 3.70 | 23.69 | 8.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.84 | 0.89 | 0.47 | 1.10 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.60 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates STLA's fair value at $62.35 vs the current price of $8.09, implying +670.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.95 (P10) to $132.49 (P90), with a median of $56.95.
STLA's current P/E of 3.7x compares to the industry median of 17.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -78.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 133.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover STLA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $11.40 (range: $9.90 — $15.00), implying +40.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STLA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 692860.0% to approximately $569. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.