MODEL VERDICT
Strawberry Fields REIT LLC (STRW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $181.67 | +1353.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 15 industry peers | $9.93 | -20.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 17 industry peers | $18.37 | +47.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $19.64 | +57.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 14 analyst estimates | $22.84 | +82.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $110.58 | +784.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $121.39 | +871.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.48 | +311.8% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.63 | 19.79 | 18.49 | 26.61 | 4.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.38 | 12.59 | 11.61 | 12.93 | 0.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.99 | 7.31 | 6.18 | 7.47 | 0.70 |
| P/FCF | 1.33 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 2.13 | 0.69 |
| P/FFO | 1.70 | 1.62 | 1.53 | 1.96 | 0.23 |
| P/TBV | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 1.35 | 0.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.04 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.64 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates STRW's fair value at $51.48 vs the current price of $12.50, implying +311.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.89 (P10) to $43.56 (P90), with a median of $37.02.
STRW's current P/E of 21.9x compares to the industry median of 34.4x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -36.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.6x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover STRW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying +20.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: STRW trades at the 830th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for STRW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.