MODEL VERDICT
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $56.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $55.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $55.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $54.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $46.69 | Below threshold | +17.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $48.87 | -13.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $66.71 | +18.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $75.12 | +32.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $75.22 | +33.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $55.85 | -1.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $73.86 | +30.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $51.94 | -8.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $43.73 | -22.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $76.33 | +35.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $80.29 | +42.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.90 | +0.7% | 100% | 80 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $61 | $71 | $81 | $91 | $101 |
| Conservative (7%) | $62 | $72 | $83 | $93 | $103 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $64 | $75 | $85 | $96 | $107 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $66 | $77 | $88 | $99 | $110 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.88 | 8.30 | 4.86 | 17.63 | 4.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.57 | 7.17 | 4.41 | 19.41 | 5.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.97 | 4.33 | 2.53 | 11.26 | 2.90 |
| P/FCF | 6.49 | 5.81 | 4.18 | 10.53 | 2.37 |
| P/FFO | 4.11 | 3.63 | 2.43 | 7.66 | 1.77 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.79 | 1.31 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 6.41 | 6.47 | 3.38 | 10.46 | 2.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.04 | 1.02 | 0.72 | 1.22 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.76 | 1.34 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates SU's fair value at $56.90 vs the current price of $56.52, implying +0.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.93 (P10) to $65.47 (P90), with a median of $57.43.
SU's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +3.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
31 analysts cover SU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $62.00 (range: $54.00 — $70.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SU trades at the 5330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2160.0% to approximately $44. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.