MODEL VERDICT
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $59.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $60.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $62.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $62.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $60.17 | Pending | +2.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $153.69 | +158.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $172.95 | +190.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $138.94 | +133.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $358.28 | +501.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $148.80 | +149.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $347.66 | +483.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $212.09 | +256.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $204.46 | +243.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $145.48 | +144.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $366.16 | +514.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $210.54 | +253.4% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $47 | $53 | $60 | $66 | $72 |
| Conservative (5%) | $49 | $55 | $61 | $68 | $74 |
| Base Case (-8.5%) | $42 | $48 | $54 | $59 | $65 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $41 | $46 | $52 | $57 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.21 | 20.59 | 11.67 | 31.85 | 6.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.04 | 17.83 | 10.97 | 28.69 | 5.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.55 | 11.43 | 7.44 | 20.15 | 4.13 |
| P/FCF | 17.51 | 16.27 | 8.59 | 32.23 | 8.83 |
| P/FFO | 13.66 | 13.39 | 7.57 | 22.03 | 4.76 |
| P/TBV | 8.18 | 7.47 | 3.55 | 18.22 | 4.83 |
| P/AFFO | 19.00 | 16.57 | 10.22 | 33.27 | 8.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.70 | 2.96 | 1.71 | 6.24 | 1.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.48 | 3.78 | 2.41 | 7.74 | 1.96 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SWKS's fair value at $210.54 vs the current price of $59.58, implying +253.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $210.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $144.67 (P10) to $200.99 (P90), with a median of $172.56.
SWKS's current P/E of 19.3x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -57.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
59 analysts cover SWKS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $77.36 (range: $58.00 — $140.00), implying +29.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (35), Hold (23), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SWKS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17040.0% to approximately $161. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.