MODEL VERDICT
BBB Foods Inc. (TBBB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $36.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $37.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $38.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $35.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $37.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $193.48 | +428.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $43.93 | +20.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $237.14 | +548.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $224.15 | +512.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $506.47 | +1284.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $528.60 | +1345.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $596.23 | +1529.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $43.14 | +17.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $237.15 | +548.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $257.90 | +605.0% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 224× | 245× | 266× (Current) | 287× | 308× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $559 | $612 | $664 | $716 | $769 |
| Conservative (7%) | $573 | $626 | $680 | $734 | $787 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $591 | $647 | $702 | $758 | $813 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $610 | $667 | $725 | $782 | $839 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates TBBB's fair value at $257.90 vs the current price of $36.58, implying +605.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $257.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $169.38 (P10) to $314.36 (P90), with a median of $238.57.
TBBB's current P/E of 266.3x compares to the industry median of 18.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +1354.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover TBBB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.67 (range: $42.00 — $46.00), implying +19.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TBBB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.