MODEL VERDICT
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $101.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $99.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $104.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $103.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $100.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $93.12 | -8.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $109.64 | +8.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $136.41 | +34.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $17.20 | -83.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $93.02 | -8.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $88.16 | -13.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $107.15 | +5.7% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $88 | $104 | $120 | $136 | $152 |
| Conservative (28%) | $96 | $113 | $131 | $148 | $166 |
| Base Case (43.4%) | $107 | $127 | $146 | $166 | $185 |
| Bull Case (59%) | $119 | $140 | $162 | $183 | $205 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.40 | 13.31 | 9.14 | 61.09 | 21.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.85 | 7.14 | 0.46 | 18.97 | 7.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.14 | 6.60 | 0.42 | 12.59 | 4.64 |
| P/FCF | 9.64 | 8.81 | 1.14 | 22.52 | 7.33 |
| P/FFO | 14.19 | 11.23 | 8.15 | 27.89 | 7.62 |
| P/TBV | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.13 | 0.06 |
| P/AFFO | 18.43 | 11.62 | 8.40 | 54.93 | 16.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 1.02 | 0.96 | 1.13 | 0.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.29 | 2.09 | 1.75 | 3.12 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TCBI's fair value at $107.15 vs the current price of $101.38, implying +5.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $107.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79.60 (P10) to $128.21 (P90), with a median of $102.14.
TCBI's current P/E of 14.9x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +8.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
39 analysts cover TCBI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $106.17 (range: $100.00 — $114.00), implying +4.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (24), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TCBI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5360.0% to approximately $156. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.