MODEL VERDICT
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $97.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $96.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $95.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $98.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $94.28 | Below threshold | +4.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $174.50 | +79.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $118.12 | +21.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $112.59 | +15.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $155.39 | +59.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $174.50 | +79.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $98.81 | +1.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $121.16 | +24.4% | 100% | 91 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $97 | $121 | $146 | $170 | $194 |
| Conservative (8%) | $100 | $125 | $150 | $175 | $200 |
| Base Case (12.4%) | $104 | $130 | $156 | $182 | $208 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $108 | $135 | $162 | $189 | $216 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.38 | 8.98 | 6.84 | 11.71 | 1.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.43 | 31.80 | 21.86 | 50.14 | 10.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.50 | 27.13 | 19.51 | 42.64 | 8.52 |
| P/FCF | 2.05 | 2.31 | 0.45 | 3.13 | 1.22 |
| P/FFO | 7.84 | 7.85 | 6.12 | 9.40 | 1.10 |
| P/TBV | 1.38 | 1.34 | 1.00 | 1.71 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 8.89 | 8.78 | 6.62 | 11.02 | 1.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 1.07 | 0.81 | 1.40 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.69 | 1.74 | 0.79 | 2.93 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TD's fair value at $121.16 vs the current price of $97.36, implying +24.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $121.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $114.35 (P10) to $132.62 (P90), with a median of $123.21.
TD's current P/E of 11.5x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -23.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
17 analysts cover TD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $89.52 (range: $87.53 — $91.51), implying -8.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TD trades at the 1430th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1940.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.