MODEL VERDICT
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $113.58 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $111.87 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $107.64 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $107.46 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $107.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $180.61 | +59.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $112.87 | -0.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $110.08 | -3.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $157.41 | +38.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $180.45 | +58.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $104.76 | -7.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $127.77 | +12.5% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $121 | $146 | $170 | $194 | $218 |
| Conservative (8%) | $125 | $150 | $175 | $200 | $225 |
| Base Case (12.4%) | $130 | $156 | $182 | $208 | $234 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $135 | $162 | $189 | $216 | $243 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.38 | 8.98 | 6.84 | 11.71 | 1.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.43 | 31.80 | 21.86 | 50.14 | 10.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.50 | 27.13 | 19.51 | 42.64 | 8.52 |
| P/FCF | 2.05 | 2.31 | 0.45 | 3.13 | 1.22 |
| P/FFO | 7.84 | 7.85 | 6.12 | 9.40 | 1.10 |
| P/TBV | 1.38 | 1.34 | 1.00 | 1.71 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 8.89 | 8.78 | 6.62 | 11.02 | 1.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 1.07 | 0.81 | 1.40 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.69 | 1.74 | 0.79 | 2.93 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TD's fair value at $127.77 vs the current price of $113.58, implying +12.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $127.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $115.99 (P10) to $132.22 (P90), with a median of $123.95.
TD's current P/E of 13.5x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -13.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
17 analysts cover TD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $89.52 (range: $87.53 — $91.51), implying -21.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TD trades at the 4760th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 230.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.