Upside case
Bull case
$411+266.0%
TD would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 32x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 29, 2026
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
17
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 17 covering TD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$90
-20.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$68 – $411
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $189.8B
TD price targets
Three scenarios for where TD stock could go
Current
~$112
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 29, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $112
Bear
$68
Base
$145
Bull
$411
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$145+29.0%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$68-39.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push TD down roughly 40% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Toronto-Dominion Bank
TD · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedOctober year-end
The Toronto-Dominion Bank is a major North American retail and commercial bank operating primarily in Canada and the United States. It generates revenue through retail banking services—including deposits, lending, and wealth management—and wholesale banking operations, with Canadian retail contributing roughly 60% of earnings and U.S. retail about 30%. TD's competitive advantage lies in its extensive North American branch network—one of the largest among Canadian banks—and its strong retail banking franchise built on customer loyalty and cross-selling capabilities.
Market Cap
$189.8B
Net Income TTM
$14.9B
TD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.91/$1.46
Revenue
$15.5B/$10.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.46
Revenue
$15.9B/$10.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.76/$1.63
Revenue
$11.0B/$10.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.74/$1.63
Revenue
$11.8B/$11.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.91/$1.46 | +30.8% | $15.5B/$10.0B | +54.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.57/$1.46 | +7.5% | $15.9B/$10.4B | +53.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.76/$1.63 | +8.0% | $11.0B/$10.7B | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.74/$1.63 | +6.7% | $11.8B/$11.0B | +6.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$99.9B
-13.7% YoY
FY2
$100.3B
+0.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.82
-11.1% YoY
FY2
$10.77
-0.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$13.0B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $47.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CANADA
61.3%
+9.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
CANADA is the largest reported region at 61.3%, up 9.7% YoY.
TD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $128 — implies +12.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
12.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TD
13.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.0x
46% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
TD
13.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.0x
In line with benchmark
vs TD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.5x
vs
5Y Average
9.0x
+49% premium
Forward PE
12.1x
S&P 500
18.7x
-35%
Financial Services
10.2x
+18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.5x
S&P 500
25.0x
-46%
Financial Services
13.0x
+3%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+49%
PEG Ratio
1.08x
S&P 500
1.75x
-38%
Financial Services
0.93x
+17%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
31.0x
S&P 500
15.1x
+105%
Financial Services
11.0x
+181%
5Y Avg
29.0x
+7%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.4x
—
Financial Services
10.5x
—
5Y Avg
2.5x
—
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-27%
Financial Services
2.2x
+3%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+46%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
S&P 500
1.87%
+53%
Financial Services
2.79%
+3%
5Y Avg
5.69%
-50%
| Metric | TD | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.1x | 18.7x-35% | 10.2x+18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.5x | 25.0x-46% | 13.0x | 9.0x+49% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.08x | 1.75x-38% | 0.93x+17% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.0x | 15.1x+105% | 11.0x+181% | 29.0x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.4x | 10.5x | 2.5x |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-27% | 2.2x | 1.5x+46% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 5.69% |
TD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTD Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
TD generates 11.9% ROE and 0.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.17
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
11.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$116.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$546.6B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
11.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.8%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
7.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$20.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.46
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageTD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & AML Compliance
TD Bank faced a record $1.3 billion FinCEN fine and a total $3.1 billion resolution for anti‑money‑laundering and Bank Secrecy Act failures in the U.S. The bank’s U.S. operations are subject to an asset cap pending remediation, limiting growth until regulators are satisfied.
High Risk
Operational Technology & Cybersecurity
Operational weaknesses were exposed by the AML failures, revealing gaps in transaction monitoring, customer due diligence, and suspicious activity reporting. TD is investing in technology upgrades, hiring specialists, and strengthening governance to mitigate future cyber and process risks.
Medium
Market Volatility Exposure
TD is exposed to fluctuations in equity, commodity, foreign exchange, interest rates, and credit spreads. Monetary policy shifts and inflation can affect loan quality and deposit levels, while geopolitical events such as Middle East conflicts increase energy price volatility.
Medium
Credit Portfolio Concentration
The bank’s loan portfolio faces concentration risk, with potential impairments if borrowers’ repayment capacity weakens during economic downturns. Allowances for loan losses may need to be increased to absorb credit deterioration.
Medium
Reputational Damage
AML compliance failures have eroded investor confidence and led to a designation as an "ethical risk" by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. Reputational harm could restrict North American growth ambitions and affect customer trust.
Lower
Environmental & Climate Risk
TD recognizes climate risk as a top risk and has integrated environmental and social considerations into its Enterprise Risk Framework. The bank is working to meet regulatory expectations for climate risk management.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Record Q1 2026 Earnings
TD Bank posted record adjusted diluted EPS of CAD 2.44 in Q1 2026, surpassing analyst forecasts and marking significant year‑over‑year growth. Revenue also exceeded expectations across all business segments, and the bank has set ambitious EPS forecasts for FY 2026 and FY 2027, indicating continued upside.
Aggressive Share Buyback Program
TD launched a new CAD 7 billion share buyback, adding to an earlier CAD 8 billion program, underscoring its commitment to returning capital to shareholders. The sale of its stake in Charles Schwab provided excess capital for balance‑sheet optimization and further buybacks, potentially boosting EPS.
Moatier Canadian Core Business
The Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking segment delivered record revenue, earnings, and loan volumes, positioning it as a moatier growth engine. This segment is expected to drive faster growth, especially as U.S. retail bank balance‑sheet expansion faces regulatory limits.
Attractive Dividend Yield
TD offers a compelling dividend yield that provides a steady income stream for investors. The bank is expected to continue raising dividends, enhancing its appeal amid market volatility.
AI‑Driven Efficiency Gains
TD is actively integrating AI and other technologies to streamline operations and simplify processes, aiming to unlock further profitability. These efficiency improvements are projected to boost margins and support future growth.
Regulatory Concerns Diminishing
After past money‑laundering accusations, TD appointed a new compliance chief and set aside provisions for potential penalties. As these regulatory issues ease, the stock may experience a re‑rating and unlock additional upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$112.36
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$69.08
+62.7% from the low
52-Week High
$114.22
-1.6% from the high
1 Month
+5.75%
3 Month
+14.98%
YTD
+18.8%
1 Year
+60.6%
3Y CAGR
+24.9%
5Y CAGR
+9.1%
10Y CAGR
+9.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.1x
vs 10.7x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-13.7%
vs -12.4% median
-11% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TD TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | $189.8B | 12.1x | -13.7% | — | Buy | -20.3% |
BMO BMO Bank of Montreal | $114.6B | 11.4x | -12.4% | — | Buy | -13.8% |
BNS BNS The Bank of Nova Scotia | $98.9B | 9.9x | +8.3% | — | Buy | -10.1% |
RY RY Royal Bank of Canada | $266.9B | 12.2x | -11.5% | — | Hold | -34.7% |
CM CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | $99.5B | 10.7x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -0.7% |
USB USB U.S. Bancorp | $82.6B | 10.4x | -13.3% | — | Hold | +20.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TD Dividend and Capital Return
TD returns capital mainly through $20.8B/year in buybacks (7.9% buyback yield), with a modest 2.86% dividend — combining for 10.8% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
10.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.9%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
Payout Ratio
37.3%
How TD Splits Its Return
Div 2.86%
Buyback 7.9%
Dividend 2.86%Buybacks 7.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.46
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.7%
5Y Div CAGR
5.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$20.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
185M
Approx. Share Reduction
11.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.7B
At 11.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.37 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.97 | -1.2% | 14.8% | 20.2% |
| 2024 | $3.01 | +5.8% | 17.6% | 25.0% |
| 2023 | $2.84 | +3.6% | 13.0% | 18.7% |
| 2022 | $2.74 | +9.3% | 12.3% | 18.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsTD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $90, implying -20.3% from the current price of $112. The bear case scenario is $68 and the bull case is $411.
02What is the TD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TD is $90 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $92 (-18.6% from today), and the low-end target is $88 (-22.1%). The base case model target is $145.
03Is The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) stock overvalued in 2026?
TD trades at 12.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TD in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & AML Compliance — TD Bank faced a record $1. (2) Operational Technology & Cybersecurity — Operational weaknesses were exposed by the AML failures, revealing gaps in transaction monitoring, customer due diligence, and suspicious activity reporting. (3) Market Volatility Exposure — TD is exposed to fluctuations in equity, commodity, foreign exchange, interest rates, and credit spreads. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Toronto-Dominion Bank's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TD will report consensus revenue of $99.9B (-13.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.82 (-11.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $100.3B in revenue.
06When does The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Toronto-Dominion Bank generate?
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) generated $13.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. TD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($20.8B TTM).