MODEL VERDICT
Teradata Corporation (TDC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $30.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $33.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $31.76 | Pending | -10.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $41.50 | +31.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $45.36 | +44.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $26.51 | -15.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $42.31 | +34.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $37.29 | +18.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $43.87 | +39.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $53.58 | +70.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $49.06 | +55.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $26.99 | -14.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $43.90 | +39.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.82 | +74.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 | $37 |
| Conservative (7%) | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 68.71 | 52.00 | 19.37 | 153.44 | 53.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 189.08 | 39.88 | 16.66 | 873.88 | 312.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.29 | 14.40 | 10.40 | 26.04 | 5.47 |
| P/FCF | 16.04 | 11.61 | 8.84 | 34.35 | 9.25 |
| P/FFO | 19.95 | 21.32 | 8.33 | 29.24 | 7.34 |
| P/AFFO | 24.20 | 20.84 | 9.76 | 49.31 | 13.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.37 | 11.67 | 6.27 | 33.00 | 9.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.97 | 1.98 | 1.37 | 2.50 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TDC's fair value at $54.82 vs the current price of $31.49, implying +74.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.06 (P10) to $91.60 (P90), with a median of $58.79.
TDC's current P/E of 27.1x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +18.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 68.7x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
47 analysts cover TDC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $27.00 — $40.00), implying +11.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (25), Sell (8), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.8% is 4.0 percentage points above the 6-year average (3.8%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$39. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TDC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2300.0% to approximately $39. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.