ThredUp Inc. (TDUP)
Valuation Overview•Is ThredUp Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 37/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
TDUP struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-6.7%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $81.7M | +19.5% | +2.5% | +10.8% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$3.3M | — | +54.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$6.5M | +73.7% | +39.7% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.05 | +75.4% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $643K | +103.2% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 80.4% | 78.6% | 74.7% | 71.4% |
| Operating Margin | -6.7% | -14.2% | -19.7% | -21.5% |
| Net Margin | -6.7% | -21.2% | -24.2% | -24.5% |
| FCF Margin | -1.0% | -5.7% | -14.4% | -16.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.05 | $-0.05 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.04 | $-0.04 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.04 | $-0.03 | +25.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.05 | $-0.01 | +80.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.07 | $-0.04 | +42.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.13 | $-0.07 | +46.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.15 | $-0.22 | -46.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.10 | $-0.13 | -30.0% |
Total return is -28.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -53.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -1.0% | -10.3% | — |
| 1Y | -28.5% | -53.5% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +32.6% | +7.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -25.1% | -40.6% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -11.3% | -26.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, ThredUp Inc. appears Limited: Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
ThredUp Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $0.04 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $6.67 (implying +11.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
ThredUp Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 37/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.6 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -19.4%.
ThredUp Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
ThredUp Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +19.5% 1Y revenue growth and +75.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +2.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 14 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +11.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for ThredUp Inc. include: -74.3% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.31x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.31x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.