MODEL VERDICT
Telefónica, S.A. (TEF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $10.15 | +134.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $6.59 | +52.2% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $3.93 | -9.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $9.23 | +113.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $11.11 | +156.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.95 | +37.4% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.43 | 13.22 | 3.07 | 21.78 | 7.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.74 | 13.75 | 4.52 | 38.45 | 10.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.97 | 5.20 | 2.91 | 5.97 | 1.01 |
| P/FCF | 5.23 | 4.35 | 3.76 | 9.69 | 2.13 |
| P/FFO | 2.50 | 2.59 | 1.47 | 3.55 | 0.71 |
| P/AFFO | 8.85 | 7.65 | 2.83 | 17.92 | 5.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 1.00 | 0.65 | 1.63 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.63 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.90 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates TEF's fair value at $5.95 vs the current price of $4.33, implying +37.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.17 (P10) to $7.20 (P90), with a median of $5.98.
TEF's current P/E of -65.1x compares to the industry median of 15.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -535.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover TEF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TEF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.