Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$217.09
→
Intrinsic$251.41
+16%
$135.46$251.41$481.79
Market implies 22% growth for 5 years
TMUS shows 16% potential upside using 25% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $217, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (22%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $135 → Bull $482. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $346 | $381 | $420 | $460 |
| 10% | $202 | $226 | $251 | $278 |
| 12% | $127 | $144 | $163 | $182 |
| 14% | $80 | $94 | $108 | $124 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($482) offers 122% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- 14% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (22%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($135) implies 38% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$12.93B
Year 2$16.16B
Year 3$20.20B
Year 4$25.25B
Year 5$31.56B
Terminal$500.17B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$10.34BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.