MODEL VERDICT
Toast, Inc. (TOST) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $27.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $27.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $27.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $29.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $35.46 | Below threshold | -19.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $19.27 | -29.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $11.87 | -56.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $12.80 | -53.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $14.68 | -46.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $10.67 | -60.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $18.26 | -33.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $35.18 | +28.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $29.36 | +7.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $13.03 | -52.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $15.29 | -44.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.98 | -19.5% | 100% | 75 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $25 | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 70.17 | 70.40 | 35.45 | 104.65 | 34.60 |
| P/TBV | 12.46 | 10.79 | 9.23 | 17.43 | 3.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.33 | 10.15 | 8.15 | 15.99 | 3.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.80 | 3.50 | 2.52 | 10.23 | 3.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates TOST's fair value at $21.98 vs the current price of $27.31, implying -19.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.91 (P10) to $24.82 (P90), with a median of $20.24.
TOST's current P/E of 48.8x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +113.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
29 analysts cover TOST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $39.82 (range: $33.00 — $51.00), implying +45.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TOST.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.