MODEL VERDICT
ReposiTrak, Inc. (TRAK) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 132 analyst estimates | $8.29 | -20.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 83 industry peers | $9.87 | -5.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 75 industry peers | $10.68 | +2.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 125 industry peers | $9.22 | -11.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 80 industry peers | $11.29 | +8.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 126 industry peers | $10.74 | +2.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 35 industry peers | $14.29 | +36.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 160 industry peers | $5.81 | -44.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 162 industry peers | $4.49 | -57.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 79 industry peers | $11.17 | +7.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 126 industry peers | $9.52 | -8.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.00 | +5.4% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (22%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Base Case (34.3%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Bull Case (46%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.12 | 35.34 | 26.63 | 76.31 | 18.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.60 | 27.10 | 18.54 | 61.99 | 16.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.89 | 26.43 | 13.79 | 62.85 | 15.90 |
| P/FCF | 30.10 | 26.83 | 15.85 | 60.79 | 14.53 |
| P/FFO | 30.84 | 27.92 | 18.43 | 58.12 | 13.56 |
| P/TBV | 7.32 | 4.86 | 4.46 | 16.46 | 4.34 |
| P/AFFO | 34.57 | 28.83 | 18.61 | 58.72 | 14.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.89 | 2.54 | 2.23 | 8.94 | 2.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.74 | 5.45 | 4.75 | 20.48 | 5.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRAK's fair value at $11.00 vs the current price of $10.44, implying +5.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.77 (P10) to $12.35 (P90), with a median of $10.54.
TRAK's current P/E of 29.8x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (75 peers in the group). This represents a -2.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
1 analysts cover TRAK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $24.00 — $24.00), implying +129.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TRAK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.