Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN)
Valuation Overview•Is Trinity Industries, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 48/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
TRN struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with highly explosive earnings growth (57.5% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 16.6% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $492.0M | -30.0% | +2.9% | +4.3% | -10.3% | |
| EBITDA | $150.8M | — | +2.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $24.2M | +82.9% | +61.5% | — | -10.8% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.30 | +86.0% | +57.5% | — | -5.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $99.6M | -1887.2% | +23.7% | -56.5% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 27.0% | 22.0% | 21.6% | 22.5% |
| Operating Margin | 16.6% | 15.5% | 16.1% | 13.0% |
| Net Margin | 12.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% |
| FCF Margin | -13.7% | -11.6% | -16.3% | -13.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.28 | $0.32 | +16.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.30 | $2.31 | +0.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.51 | $0.38 | -74.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.39 | $0.19 | -50.6% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.33 | $0.29 | -12.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.38 | $0.39 | +2.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.38 | $0.37 | -2.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.34 | $0.66 | +94.1% |
Total return is +36.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +11.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +30.2% | +20.9% | — |
| 1Y | +36.0% | +11.0% | +4.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +17.1% | -2.6% | +14.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +9.2% | -4.5% | +20.8% |
| 10YCAGR | +12.1% | -1.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) valuation, health, and returns.
Trinity Industries, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $35.38)
Trinity Industries, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $35.38 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $48.58 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $35.00 (implying +1.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Trinity Industries, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 48/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -0.3 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.1%.
Trinity Industries, Inc. pays a 3.5% dividend yield, covered by a 39% payout ratio with 15 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.6% buyback yield.
Trinity Industries, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -30.0% 1Y revenue growth and +86.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +2.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 25 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +1.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Trinity Industries, Inc. include: -19.7% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.79x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.