MODEL VERDICT
Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $36.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $31.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $32.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $33.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $34.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $42.24 | +16.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $53.48 | +47.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $76.12 | +110.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $31.29 | -13.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $33.66 | -7.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $91.01 | +151.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $75.72 | +109.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.10 | +60.4% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $33 | $39 | $46 | $52 |
| Conservative (7%) | $27 | $33 | $40 | $47 | $54 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $28 | $35 | $41 | $48 | $55 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $29 | $36 | $43 | $50 | $57 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.47 | 21.17 | 8.42 | 79.47 | 25.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.45 | 18.91 | 11.44 | 32.88 | 7.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.28 | 11.20 | 10.68 | 76.43 | 24.38 |
| P/FFO | 9.29 | 6.84 | 3.93 | 27.51 | 8.12 |
| P/TBV | 2.21 | 2.32 | 1.31 | 3.00 | 0.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.19 | 2.42 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.26 | 1.02 | 0.74 | 2.07 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRN's fair value at $58.10 vs the current price of $36.22, implying +60.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.97 (P10) to $94.39 (P90), with a median of $62.11.
TRN's current P/E of 11.5x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -52.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover TRN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $34.00 — $36.00), implying -3.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (12), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18040.0% to approximately $102. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.