MODEL VERDICT
Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $124.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $128.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $128.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $136.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $120.03 | Below threshold | +22.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $97.45 | -22.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $131.20 | +5.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $81.78 | -34.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $73.86 | -40.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $64.98 | -48.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $105.20 | -15.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $107.48 | -13.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $83.40 | -33.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.88 | -31.2% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 54× | 59× | 64× (Current) | 69× | 74× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $113 | $124 | $134 | $145 | $155 |
| Conservative (13%) | $119 | $130 | $141 | $152 | $163 |
| Base Case (20.6%) | $126 | $138 | $150 | $161 | $173 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $134 | $146 | $159 | $171 | $183 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.22 | 28.64 | 6.55 | 60.53 | 16.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.33 | 27.47 | 5.71 | 68.31 | 19.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.25 | 8.99 | 4.18 | 26.67 | 7.25 |
| P/FCF | 114.44 | 29.28 | 14.63 | 461.87 | 194.44 |
| P/FFO | 11.17 | 8.68 | 4.37 | 25.48 | 6.74 |
| P/TBV | 2.48 | 2.20 | 1.41 | 4.59 | 1.03 |
| P/AFFO | 109.69 | 41.45 | 10.22 | 362.49 | 127.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.47 | 2.19 | 1.40 | 4.59 | 1.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.57 | 2.85 | 2.09 | 8.52 | 2.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates TSEM's fair value at $85.88 vs the current price of $124.87, implying -31.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $70.14 (P10) to $104.58 (P90), with a median of $87.12.
TSEM's current P/E of 64.4x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +52.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover TSEM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $154.00 (range: $140.00 — $180.00), implying +23.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TSEM trades at the 6600th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TSEM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4900.0% to approximately $64. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.