Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $851.7B | $1.16T | $1.74T | $2.08T | $2.41T | $2.54T | $2.78T |
| EPS (Diluted) | $164.25 | $223.35 | $334.65 | $401.06 | $465.02 | $488.67 | $536.67 |
| YoY Growth | — | +36.0% | +49.8% | +19.9% | +16.0% | +5.1% | +9.8% |
| Net Margin | 39.4% | 40.0% | 45.1% | 45.6% | 45.4% | 45.2% | 45.2% |
| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.85T | $4.56T | $5.31T | $5.61T | $6.15T |
| Net Income | $1.74T | $2.08T | $2.41T | $2.54T | $2.78T |
| EPS (Diluted) | $334.65 | $401.06 | $465.02 | $488.67 | $536.67 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.10T | $1.11T | $1.29T | $1.36T | $1.50T |
Forecast is usable, but expect normal estimate drift around earnings and macro events.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $401.06. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 58/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited: Bear case $7736, Base case $16346, and Bull case $22939. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 19.4%, reaching approximately $4559.7B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 58/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's forward operating margin is estimated at 50.9% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($7736) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 9.9% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 30% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.