MODEL VERDICT
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $25.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $25.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $37.29 | Pending | -27.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $22.90 | -3.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $29.27 | +22.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $23.77 | -0.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $32.23 | +35.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $31.40 | +31.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $31.09 | +30.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $19.00 | -20.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $21.08 | -11.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $19.84 | -16.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $26.58 | +11.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $32.46 | +36.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.72 | +217.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Conservative (9%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (13.2%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 200.51 | 163.47 | 41.71 | 407.55 | 126.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 207.81 | 183.33 | 111.22 | 362.26 | 93.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 141.55 | 125.79 | 33.61 | 270.70 | 80.71 |
| P/FCF | 161.35 | 93.28 | 23.03 | 633.64 | 212.31 |
| P/FFO | 144.33 | 138.78 | 46.67 | 253.84 | 68.85 |
| P/TBV | 20.70 | 20.10 | 7.38 | 39.18 | 10.99 |
| P/AFFO | 294.42 | 169.33 | 93.68 | 947.64 | 300.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 20.50 | 20.00 | 7.38 | 38.73 | 10.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 23.87 | 18.79 | 6.33 | 46.94 | 14.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TTD's fair value at $75.72 vs the current price of $23.82, implying +217.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.17 (P10) to $118.49 (P90), with a median of $82.50.
TTD's current P/E of 26.2x compares to the industry median of 26.1x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +0.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 200.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
46 analysts cover TTD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $46.65 (range: $22.00 — $80.00), implying +95.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TTD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 62160.0% to approximately $172. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.