MODEL VERDICT
Veeco Instruments Inc. (VECO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $30.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $33.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $33.11 | Pending | -7.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $54.67 | +78.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $16.45 | -46.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $24.87 | -18.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $37.90 | +24.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $23.68 | -22.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $35.25 | +15.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $87.52 | +186.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $85.76 | +180.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $25.36 | -17.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $38.74 | +26.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.52 | +3.1% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 44× | 48× | 52× (Current) | 56× | 60× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 |
| Conservative (7%) | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $29 | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $40 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.80 | 35.11 | 6.86 | 58.10 | 23.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.89 | 29.52 | 22.01 | 63.99 | 18.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.62 | 19.65 | 16.01 | 47.01 | 11.56 |
| P/FCF | 36.25 | 37.01 | 14.53 | 56.36 | 15.64 |
| P/FFO | 26.99 | 29.32 | 6.33 | 44.95 | 15.61 |
| P/TBV | 4.26 | 4.03 | 2.60 | 6.89 | 1.50 |
| P/AFFO | 60.01 | 54.15 | 7.26 | 133.35 | 50.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.30 | 2.11 | 1.86 | 3.49 | 0.56 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.20 | 2.30 | 1.66 | 2.62 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates VECO's fair value at $31.52 vs the current price of $30.56, implying +3.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.53 (P10) to $40.72 (P90), with a median of $34.60.
VECO's current P/E of 51.8x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +22.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.8x over 4 years. Signal: Premium.
36 analysts cover VECO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $30.00 (range: $30.00 — $30.00), implying -1.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VECO trades at the 5530th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (33.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VECO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (3.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5860.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.