MODEL VERDICT
VEON Ltd. (VEON)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $50.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $53.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $54.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $52.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $50.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $71.14 | +41.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $162.80 | +223.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $79.49 | +58.1% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $70.96 | +41.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $172.79 | +243.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $100.41 | +99.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $71.20 | +41.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $86.07 | +71.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $29 | $41 | $53 | $64 | $76 |
| Conservative (5%) | $30 | $42 | $54 | $66 | $78 |
| Base Case (-8.4%) | $26 | $37 | $47 | $58 | $68 |
| Bull Case (-11%) | $25 | $36 | $46 | $56 | $66 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.19 | 7.00 | 4.47 | 7.11 | 1.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.82 | 6.15 | 5.31 | 11.74 | 2.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.41 | 3.64 | 3.22 | 6.85 | 1.50 |
| P/FCF | 4.01 | 3.91 | 0.96 | 7.20 | 2.23 |
| P/FFO | 2.74 | 1.94 | 1.70 | 5.96 | 1.66 |
| P/AFFO | 93.21 | 76.37 | 5.00 | 215.09 | 101.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.99 | 1.13 | 2.61 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.23 | 0.78 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates VEON's fair value at $86.07 vs the current price of $50.29, implying +71.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $86.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $75.69 (P10) to $100.40 (P90), with a median of $87.91.
VEON's current P/E of 8.8x compares to the industry median of 12.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -29.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.2x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
13 analysts cover VEON with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $74.00 (range: $74.00 — $74.00), implying +47.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VEON trades at the 3640th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VEON.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.