MODEL VERDICT
Telefônica Brasil S.A. (VIV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $16.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $12.43 | Pending | +23.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 29 industry peers | $47.86 | +183.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 44 industry peers | $100.23 | +492.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 27 industry peers | $34.64 | +104.8% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 39 analyst estimates | $57.88 | +242.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 40 industry peers | $53.88 | +218.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 33 industry peers | $48.07 | +184.3% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 16 industry peers | $10.39 | -38.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 47 industry peers | $88.14 | +421.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 29 industry peers | $47.80 | +182.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.78 | +170.7% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $76 | $83 | $90 | $97 | $103 |
| Conservative (5%) | $78 | $85 | $92 | $99 | $106 |
| Base Case (2.7%) | $76 | $83 | $90 | $97 | $104 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $77 | $84 | $91 | $98 | $105 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.05 | 2.93 | 2.23 | 4.84 | 0.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.22 | 4.07 | 2.00 | 5.60 | 1.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.42 | 1.31 | 1.16 | 1.91 | 0.25 |
| P/FCF | 2.28 | 1.66 | 1.17 | 5.88 | 1.67 |
| P/FFO | 0.96 | 0.93 | 0.63 | 1.52 | 0.30 |
| P/TBV | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 0.88 | 0.14 |
| P/AFFO | 2.01 | 1.89 | 1.19 | 3.41 | 0.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 0.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.48 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates VIV's fair value at $45.78 vs the current price of $16.91, implying +170.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.23 (P10) to $50.72 (P90), with a median of $43.17.
VIV's current P/E of 25.8x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (29 peers in the group). This represents a +82.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 3.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover VIV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.25 (range: $12.00 — $14.50), implying -21.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VIV trades at the 7590th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (3.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VIV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2840.0% to approximately $12. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.