MODEL VERDICT
Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $13.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $13.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $13.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $13.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $13.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $12.66 | -6.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $16.68 | +23.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $16.52 | +22.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $15.73 | +16.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $12.65 | -6.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $13.64 | +1.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.51 | +0.0% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $18 |
| Conservative (5%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Base Case (1.7%) | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.71 | 11.56 | 9.92 | 13.16 | 1.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.22 | 12.30 | 8.54 | 15.41 | 2.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.97 | 10.96 | 7.75 | 13.33 | 2.17 |
| P/FCF | 13.13 | 14.62 | 3.86 | 24.15 | 7.19 |
| P/FFO | 9.63 | 9.88 | 8.35 | 10.74 | 0.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.23 | 1.26 | 0.86 | 1.59 | 0.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 1.11 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.32 | 2.52 | 1.31 | 3.79 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates VLY's fair value at $13.51 vs the current price of $13.51, implying +0.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.98 (P10) to $14.35 (P90), with a median of $13.65.
VLY's current P/E of 13.4x compares to the industry median of 12.5x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +6.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
21 analysts cover VLY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.58 (range: $14.50 — $17.00), implying +15.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VLY trades at the 5340th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VLY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 250.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.