MODEL VERDICT
NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $7.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $7.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $19.91 | +176.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $26.88 | +273.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $13.84 | +92.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $40.22 | +459.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $49.83 | +593.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $13.48 | +87.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.24 | +153.7% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.07 | 38.26 | 6.89 | 44.88 | 17.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 49.34 | 39.14 | 12.18 | 96.70 | 43.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.51 | 11.22 | 6.94 | 16.45 | 2.97 |
| P/FCF | 14.01 | 7.83 | 5.19 | 39.26 | 14.23 |
| P/FFO | 6.70 | 5.41 | 1.60 | 17.48 | 5.53 |
| P/AFFO | 7.80 | 6.72 | 1.93 | 14.25 | 4.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.64 | 2.09 | 1.12 | 7.90 | 2.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.45 | 0.93 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates VYX's fair value at $18.24 vs the current price of $7.19, implying +153.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.90 (P10) to $21.50 (P90), with a median of $18.19.
VYX's current P/E of 24.0x compares to the industry median of 46.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -48.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover VYX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.50 (range: $12.00 — $13.00), implying +73.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VYX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.