MODEL VERDICT
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $161.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $166.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $159.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $159.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $161.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $203.05 | +25.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $121.15 | -24.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $135.47 | -16.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $153.52 | -4.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $121.00 | -25.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $132.56 | -17.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $289.53 | +79.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $94.58 | -41.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $120.88 | -25.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $145.73 | -9.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $157.11 | -2.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $180.65 | +12.0% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $160 | $174 | $189 | $204 | $218 |
| Conservative (26%) | $174 | $190 | $205 | $221 | $237 |
| Base Case (39.9%) | $193 | $211 | $228 | $246 | $263 |
| Bull Case (54%) | $212 | $232 | $251 | $270 | $289 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 62.28 | 50.60 | 40.91 | 131.50 | 32.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.38 | 33.88 | 30.65 | 42.99 | 4.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.16 | 20.31 | 17.85 | 26.89 | 3.25 |
| P/FCF | 34.06 | 36.24 | 27.46 | 37.84 | 3.93 |
| P/FFO | 22.45 | 21.82 | 18.32 | 28.26 | 3.68 |
| P/AFFO | 52.94 | 46.31 | 37.25 | 92.46 | 19.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.78 | 5.01 | 3.46 | 5.65 | 0.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.93 | 4.80 | 4.46 | 5.80 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WCN's fair value at $180.65 vs the current price of $161.23, implying +12.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $180.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $141.84 (P10) to $191.57 (P90), with a median of $166.59.
WCN's current P/E of 38.6x compares to the industry median of 32.4x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +19.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 62.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
33 analysts cover WCN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $204.08 (range: $180.00 — $218.00), implying +26.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (25), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WCN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14320.0% to approximately $392. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.