MODEL VERDICT
Weave Communications, Inc. (WEAV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $5.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $4.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $5.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $5.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $4.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $5.95 | +3.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $11.04 | +92.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $10.16 | +76.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $17.45 | +203.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $17.68 | +207.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $9.42 | +63.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.82 | +70.8% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 84.16 | 95.35 | 38.23 | 118.89 | 41.48 |
| P/TBV | 10.52 | 9.83 | 3.73 | 17.71 | 5.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.24 | 8.69 | 3.62 | 17.03 | 4.95 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.62 | 4.55 | 2.12 | 8.43 | 2.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates WEAV's fair value at $9.82 vs the current price of $5.75, implying +70.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.42 (P10) to $12.52 (P90), with a median of $10.45.
WEAV's current P/E of -15.5x compares to the industry median of 30.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -150.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover WEAV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $8.00 — $10.00), implying +56.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WEAV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.