MODEL VERDICT
Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc. (WHLRD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $38.75 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $39.00 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $36.83 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $35.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $3.54 | -90.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 2 REIT peers | $2.52 | -93.5% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $5.58 | -85.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $1.36 | -96.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $1.50 | -96.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $4.98 | -87.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $5.41 | -86.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.81 | -87.6% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 30.64 | 18.21 | 14.02 | 93.12 | 28.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.12 | 9.81 | 7.41 | 76.18 | 25.20 |
| P/FCF | 145.13 | 0.48 | 0.20 | 1010.34 | 381.52 |
| P/FFO | 18.72 | 0.42 | 0.10 | 128.26 | 48.31 |
| P/TBV | 6.22 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 43.28 | 16.34 |
| P/AFFO | 70.01 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 278.45 | 138.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.17 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 42.96 | 16.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.85 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 40.53 | 15.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates WHLRD's fair value at $4.81 vs the current price of $38.75, implying -87.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.74 (P10) to $8.58 (P90), with a median of $4.98.
WHLRD's current P/E of -1.1x compares to the industry median of 28.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -103.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover WHLRD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WHLRD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.