MODEL VERDICT
World Acceptance Corporation (WRLD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $152.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $151.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $141.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $134.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $148.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $193.44 | +27.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $111.16 | -26.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $90.23 | -40.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $179.22 | +17.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $82.09 | -46.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $174.31 | +14.7% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $93 | $130 | $168 | $205 | $242 |
| Conservative (23%) | $100 | $141 | $181 | $221 | $261 |
| Base Case (35.7%) | $111 | $155 | $199 | $243 | $288 |
| Bull Case (48%) | $121 | $169 | $217 | $266 | $314 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.59 | 18.55 | 7.79 | 36.26 | 11.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.97 | 18.00 | 8.33 | 52.77 | 16.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.31 | 15.28 | 7.64 | 37.64 | 10.95 |
| P/FCF | 3.46 | 3.09 | 1.58 | 7.61 | 1.93 |
| P/FFO | 14.22 | 16.26 | 6.40 | 23.96 | 7.00 |
| P/TBV | 2.11 | 1.82 | 1.21 | 4.38 | 1.05 |
| P/AFFO | 17.30 | 18.40 | 7.05 | 29.26 | 9.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.98 | 1.76 | 1.13 | 4.04 | 0.96 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.49 | 1.37 | 0.72 | 3.10 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates WRLD's fair value at $174.31 vs the current price of $152.02, implying +14.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $174.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $127.37 (P10) to $212.79 (P90), with a median of $168.83.
WRLD's current P/E of 9.3x compares to the industry median of 11.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -21.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
10 analysts cover WRLD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (5), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.9% is 5.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (10.0%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$192. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WRLD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2600.0% to approximately $192. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.