MODEL VERDICT
TeraWulf Inc. (WULF) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $16.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $15.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $16.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $16.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $13.10 | Below threshold | +27.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $2.42 | -85.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $2.97 | -81.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.44 | -85.0% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.48 | 1.31 | 0.63 | 10.41 | 4.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.47 | 1.28 | 0.63 | 10.41 | 4.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.90 | 3.20 | 0.60 | 14.20 | 5.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates WULF's fair value at $2.44 vs the current price of $16.22, implying -85.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.58 (P10) to $3.89 (P90), with a median of $2.64.
WULF's current P/E of -77.2x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -386.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover WULF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.50 (range: $17.00 — $37.00), implying +38.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WULF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.