Upside case
Bull case
$243+76.0%
XOM would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
55
analysts
24 bullish · 5 bearish · 55 covering XOM
Strong Buy
1
Buy
23
Hold
26
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$170
+23.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$116 – $243
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
55
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $584.0B
XOM price targets
Three scenarios for where XOM stock could go
Current
~$138
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $138
Bear
$116
Base
$184
Bull
$243
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$184+33.6%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$116-15.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push XOM down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Exxon Mobil is a global integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets petroleum products and petrochemicals. It generates revenue through three main segments: Upstream (oil and gas production, ~60% of earnings), Downstream (refining and marketing, ~30%), and Chemical (petrochemical manufacturing, ~10%). Its competitive advantage lies in massive scale, integrated operations across the value chain, and decades of technical expertise in complex projects.
Market Cap
$584.0B
Revenue TTM
$323.9B
Net Income TTM
$28.8B
Net Margin
8.9%
XOM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.64/$1.57
Revenue
$79.5B/$80.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.88/$1.82
Revenue
$83.3B/$86.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.71/$1.70
Revenue
$82.3B/$80.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.16/$0.98
Revenue
$85.1B/$81.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.64/$1.57 | +4.5% | $79.5B/$80.7B | -1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.88/$1.82 | +3.3% | $83.3B/$86.5B | -3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.71/$1.70 | +0.6% | $82.3B/$80.6B | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.16/$0.98 | +17.9% | $85.1B/$81.1B | +4.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$340.8B
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$357.7B
+4.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.91
+30.9% YoY
FY2
$8.95
+0.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$23.6B
FCF Margin: 7.3%
Next Earnings
August 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.73
Expected Revenue
$110.2B
XOM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
XOM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $317.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Energy Products
68.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
58.2%
+92.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Energy Products is the largest disclosed segment at 68.7% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 58.2%, up 92.2% YoY.
XOM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $90 — implies -34.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
34.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
XOM
20.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
16% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
XOM
20.6x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+33% premium
vs XOM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.6x
vs
5Y Average
12.5x
+64% premium
Forward PE
12.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-33%
Energy
12.5x
+1%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
-16%
Energy
15.5x
+33%
5Y Avg
12.5x
+64%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-32%
Energy
7.8x
+31%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+46%
Price/FCF
24.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+20%
Energy
13.8x
+79%
5Y Avg
12.9x
+92%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-42%
Energy
1.4x
+27%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+44%
Dividend Yield
2.90%
S&P 500
1.91%
+52%
Energy
3.47%
-16%
5Y Avg
3.91%
-26%
| Metric | XOM | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg XOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.5x | 18.8x-33% | 12.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.6x | 24.4x-16% | 15.5x+33% | 12.5x+64% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3x | 15.2x-32% | 7.8x+31% | 7.1x+46% |
| Price/FCF | 24.7x | 20.7x+20% | 13.8x+79% | 12.9x+92% |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-42% | 1.4x+27% | 1.3x+44% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.90% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 3.91% |
XOM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolXOM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
XOM returns 6.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$323.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-4.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$23.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$32.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.4× FCF
~1.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.4%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
3.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$20.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
59.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
4.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageXOM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
ExxonMobil's performance is highly sensitive to oil price swings, as seen in recent stock declines and cash flow projections.
High Risk
ESG and Reputational Risks
The company faces growing scrutiny over environmental, social, and governance concerns, impacting investor sentiment.
Medium
Geopolitical Uncertainty
Conflicts like the US-Iran war introduce volatility in oil markets, affecting ExxonMobil's revenue and stock outlook.
Medium
Integration Challenges
Post-Pioneer acquisition risks include execution hurdles and potential disruptions to ExxonMobil's operations.
Lower
Long-Term Demand Shifts
Transition to low-carbon alternatives poses gradual risks to ExxonMobil's traditional oil and gas business model.
Medium
Macroeconomic Risks
Broader economic conditions, including inflation and interest rates, could pressure ExxonMobil's profitability and valuation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why XOM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Low-cost asset base
ExxonMobil's superior, low-cost asset base, particularly in Guyana and the Permian basin, is a key driver of its bullish thesis.
Higher production rates
Expected higher production rates in 2026 from Permian and Guyana assets are central to the bullish outlook for ExxonMobil.
Industry-leading portfolio
ExxonMobil manages an industry-leading portfolio of resources, being one of the largest integrated fuels, lubricants, and chemical companies globally.
Integrated value chain
The company earns most profit from Upstream production and captures added value through integrated manufacturing and marketing, enhancing profitability.
Growing Low Carbon Solutions
ExxonMobil has a smaller but growing Low Carbon Solutions portfolio, positioning it for future energy transitions.
Strong financial metrics
With trailing and forward P/E ratios of 19.60 and 18.66 respectively, ExxonMobil's valuation metrics support its bullish case.
Market leadership
As the largest U.S.-based oil and gas company, ExxonMobil's scale and revenue rank (8th in the U.S., 13th globally) underscore its market dominance.
Bull case fair value
Exxon Mobil's bull case fair value is estimated at $174.00 per share, suggesting significant upside potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
XOM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$137.81
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$105.53
+30.6% from the low
52-Week High
$176.41
-21.9% from the high
1 Month
-14.13%
3 Month
-12.55%
YTD
+12.4%
1 Year
+21.8%
3Y CAGR
+10.3%
5Y CAGR
+17.9%
10Y CAGR
+4.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
XOM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.5x
vs 7.8x median
+62% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
vs +6.8% median
-23% below peer median
Net Margin
8.9%
vs 7.0% median
+27% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $584.0B | 12.5x | +5.2% | 8.9% | Hold | +23.4% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $346.5B | 12.1x | +8.6% | 6.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $131.3B | 10.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | +23.4% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $102.1B | 7.4x | +3.8% | 1.6% | Hold | +9.6% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $222.2B | 7.8x | +6.8% | 7.0% | Buy | +28.9% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $179.1B | 7.3x | +2.4% | 8.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
XOM Dividend and Capital Return
XOM returns 6.4% annually — 2.90% through dividends and 3.5% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
6.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.5%
Dividend Yield
2.90%
Payout Ratio
59.7%
How XOM Splits Its Return
Div 2.90%
Buyback 3.5%
Dividend 2.90%Buybacks 3.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
43Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.1%
5Y Div CAGR
2.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$20.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
147M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.2B
At 3.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.00 | +4.2% | 3.9% | 7.2% |
| 2024 | $3.84 | +4.3% | 4.2% | 7.9% |
| 2023 | $3.68 | +3.7% | 4.4% | 8.1% |
| 2022 | $3.55 | +1.7% | 3.3% | 6.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsXOM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 55 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 26 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $170, implying +23.4% from the current price of $138. The bear case scenario is $116 and the bull case is $243.
02What is the XOM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for XOM is $170 based on 55 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $185 (+34.2% from today), and the low-end target is $123 (-10.7%). The base case model target is $184.
03Is Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) stock overvalued in 2026?
XOM trades at 12.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for XOM in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — ExxonMobil's performance is highly sensitive to oil price swings, as seen in recent stock declines and cash flow projections. (2) ESG and Reputational Risks — The company faces growing scrutiny over environmental, social, and governance concerns, impacting investor sentiment. (3) Geopolitical Uncertainty — Conflicts like the US-Iran war introduce volatility in oil markets, affecting ExxonMobil's revenue and stock outlook. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Exxon Mobil Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates XOM will report consensus revenue of $340.8B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.91 (+30.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $357.7B in revenue.
06When does Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) report its next earnings?
Exxon Mobil Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-07. Consensus expects EPS of $3.73 and revenue of $110.2B. Over recent quarters, XOM has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Exxon Mobil Corporation generate?
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) generated $23.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.3%. XOM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($20.3B TTM).