Upside case
Bull case
$364+135.1%
XOM would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
55
analysts
22 bullish · 5 bearish · 55 covering XOM
Strong Buy
1
Buy
21
Hold
28
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$160
+3.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $364
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
55
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $656.4B
XOM price targets
Three scenarios for where XOM stock could go
Current
~$155
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $155
Base
$185
Bull
$364
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$185+19.5%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Exxon Mobil is a global integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets petroleum products and petrochemicals. It generates revenue through three main segments: Upstream (oil and gas production, ~60% of earnings), Downstream (refining and marketing, ~30%), and Chemical (petrochemical manufacturing, ~10%). Its competitive advantage lies in massive scale, integrated operations across the value chain, and decades of technical expertise in complex projects.
Market Cap
$656.4B
Revenue TTM
$323.9B
Net Income TTM
$28.8B
Net Margin
8.9%
XOM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.64/$1.57
Revenue
$79.5B/$80.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.88/$1.82
Revenue
$83.3B/$86.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.71/$1.70
Revenue
$82.3B/$80.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.16/$0.98
Revenue
$85.1B/$81.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.64/$1.57 | +4.5% | $79.5B/$80.7B | -1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.88/$1.82 | +3.3% | $83.3B/$86.5B | -3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.71/$1.70 | +0.6% | $82.3B/$80.6B | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.16/$0.98 | +17.9% | $85.1B/$81.1B | +4.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$346.7B
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$329.5B
-5.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.29
+21.7% YoY
FY2
$8.01
-3.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$23.6B
FCF Margin: 7.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
XOM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
XOM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $317.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Energy Products
68.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
58.2%
+92.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Energy Products is the largest disclosed segment at 68.7% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 58.2%, up 92.2% YoY.
XOM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $100 — implies -34.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
34.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
XOM
23.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
8% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
XOM
23.1x
vs
Energy
17.1x
+35% premium
vs XOM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.1x
vs
5Y Average
12.5x
+85% premium
Forward PE
15.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-18%
Energy
13.9x
+13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-8%
Energy
17.1x
+35%
5Y Avg
12.5x
+85%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-24%
Energy
8.0x
+43%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+63%
Price/FCF
27.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+32%
Energy
13.8x
+102%
5Y Avg
12.9x
+116%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-35%
Energy
1.6x
+23%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+61%
Dividend Yield
2.58%
S&P 500
1.87%
+38%
Energy
2.73%
-5%
5Y Avg
3.91%
-34%
| Metric | XOM | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg XOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.6x | 19.1x-18% | 13.9x+13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.1x | 25.1x | 17.1x+35% | 12.5x+85% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.5x | 15.2x-24% | 8.0x+43% | 7.1x+63% |
| Price/FCF | 27.8x | 21.1x+32% | 13.8x+102% | 12.9x+116% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-35% | 1.6x+23% | 1.3x+61% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.58% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 3.91% |
XOM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolXOM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
XOM returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$323.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-4.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$23.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$32.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.4× FCF
~1.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
3.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$20.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
59.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
4.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageXOM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
XOM’s earnings are highly sensitive to oil, gas, and petrochemical price swings. A sustained decline below $80 per barrel could materially erode operating margins and reserves, leading to significant downside risk. Current valuation may already be pricing in high oil prices, amplifying potential losses if prices normalize.
High Risk
Energy Transition & Technological Disruption
The long‑term viability of fossil fuel assets is threatened by rapid advances in alternative energy technologies. While XOM is investing in lower‑emission ventures, the commercial competitiveness of these projects remains uncertain, potentially eroding future cash flows and share price.
Medium
Geopolitical Risks
Conflicts in the Middle East can disrupt XOM’s production, logistics, and raise insurance costs. Disruptions to its Middle East output could reduce quarterly results, and trade sanctions or controls could restrict imports/exports, impacting the business.
Medium
Regulatory & Political Factors
Government regulations, leasing restrictions, and political developments can limit access to oil and gas resources. Restrictions on foreign investment may increase operating costs and constrain expansion, negatively affecting profitability.
Medium
Operational & Project Execution Risks
Unforeseen technical difficulties, operational incidents, and challenges in executing large projects can impair production and earnings. XOM’s growth strategy depends on successful execution of major developments, so execution failures could materially harm financial performance.
Medium
Economic Conditions
Global economic downturns, recessions, and shifts in growth rates can reduce energy demand, pressuring XOM’s revenue and profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why XOM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Permian Basin Expansion & Pioneer Acquisition
ExxonMobil’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources fuels its Permian Basin growth, adding low‑cost, scalable output. The deal positions XOM to capture higher production volumes while leveraging Pioneer’s proven assets.
Guyana Production & Golden Pass LNG
Significant output in Guyana and the Golden Pass LNG project provide diversified revenue streams. These assets enhance XOM’s global footprint and tap into growing LNG demand.
Targeted $20B Cost Savings
The company aims to achieve $20 billion in cost savings by decade’s end, boosting profitability. This disciplined capital approach underpins resilience amid market volatility.
Robust Dividend & Buyback History
XOM has increased dividends for 43 consecutive years and runs a substantial stock‑buyback program, offering a price floor for investors.
Strong Cash Flow & 2030 Earnings Outlook
Operating cash flow reached $51.97 billion, and analysts project rising revenue and EPS through 2030, reflecting solid financial performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
XOM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$154.88
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$101.19
+53.1% from the low
52-Week High
$176.41
-12.2% from the high
1 Month
-5.19%
3 Month
+6.02%
YTD
+26.3%
1 Year
+50.0%
3Y CAGR
+12.5%
5Y CAGR
+20.5%
10Y CAGR
+5.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
XOM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.6x
vs 9.1x median
+71% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.0%
vs +3.3% median
+110% above peer median
Net Margin
8.9%
vs 6.7% median
+33% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $656.4B | 15.6x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +3.6% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $384.4B | 15.9x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | -0.9% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $150.3B | 14.3x | +8.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +3.0% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $121.4B | 9.1x | +2.9% | 1.6% | Hold | -5.6% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $253.9B | 9.1x | +3.3% | 6.7% | Buy | +5.5% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $208.4B | 8.8x | -2.2% | 8.2% | Buy | -19.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
XOM Dividend and Capital Return
XOM returns 5.7% annually — 2.58% through dividends and 3.1% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.1%
Dividend Yield
2.58%
Payout Ratio
59.7%
How XOM Splits Its Return
Div 2.58%
Buyback 3.1%
Dividend 2.58%Buybacks 3.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
42Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.1%
5Y Div CAGR
2.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$20.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
131M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.2B
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.00 | +4.2% | 3.9% | 7.2% |
| 2024 | $3.84 | +4.3% | 4.2% | 7.9% |
| 2023 | $3.68 | +3.7% | 4.4% | 8.1% |
| 2022 | $3.55 | +1.7% | 3.3% | 6.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsXOM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 55 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $160, implying +3.6% from the current price of $155.
02What is the XOM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for XOM is $160 based on 55 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $185 (+19.4% from today), and the low-end target is $123 (-20.6%). The base case model target is $185.
03Is Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) stock overvalued in 2026?
XOM trades at 15.6x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for XOM in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — XOM’s earnings are highly sensitive to oil, gas, and petrochemical price swings. (2) Energy Transition & Technological Disruption — The long‑term viability of fossil fuel assets is threatened by rapid advances in alternative energy technologies. (3) Geopolitical Risks — Conflicts in the Middle East can disrupt XOM’s production, logistics, and raise insurance costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Exxon Mobil Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates XOM will report consensus revenue of $346.7B (+7.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.29 (+21.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $329.5B in revenue.
06When does Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for XOM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Exxon Mobil Corporation generate?
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) generated $23.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.3%. XOM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($20.3B TTM).