MODEL VERDICT
XP Inc. (XP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.10 | Pending | +19.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $226.39 | +951.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $133.33 | +519.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $139.66 | +548.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $245.43 | +1039.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $228.95 | +963.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $168.83 | +684.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $143.51 | +566.5% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $93 | $111 | $130 | $148 | $167 |
| Conservative (20%) | $99 | $119 | $139 | $158 | $178 |
| Base Case (31.3%) | $108 | $130 | $151 | $173 | $195 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $117 | $140 | $164 | $187 | $211 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.85 | 4.12 | 1.44 | 18.26 | 6.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.07 | 18.71 | 10.60 | 22.54 | 5.27 |
| P/FCF | 6.46 | 3.52 | 0.60 | 18.19 | 8.07 |
| P/FFO | 6.37 | 3.87 | 1.36 | 16.83 | 5.95 |
| P/TBV | 1.35 | 1.02 | 0.37 | 2.99 | 1.02 |
| P/AFFO | 6.72 | 3.97 | 1.40 | 17.94 | 6.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.25 | 0.94 | 0.32 | 2.75 | 0.95 |
| Div Yield | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.59 | 1.11 | 0.33 | 3.81 | 1.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates XP's fair value at $143.51 vs the current price of $21.53, implying +566.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $143.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $113.07 (P10) to $167.70 (P90), with a median of $137.79.
XP's current P/E of 13.5x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -50.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover XP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.50 (range: $22.00 — $25.00), implying +9.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: XP trades at the 1940th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that XP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (23.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 16600.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.