XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO)
Valuation Overview•Is XPO Logistics, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 36/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
XPO struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 9.1%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.1B | +1.1% | +1.9% | +5.7% | +0.7% | |
| EBITDA | $315.0M | — | +17.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $101.0M | -18.3% | -22.0% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.85 | -18.3% | -22.9% | +27.6% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $72.0M | +2093.3% | +1.9% | -12.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 12.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 12.5% |
| Operating Margin | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% |
| Net Margin | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| FCF Margin | 5.5% | -2.3% | 0.7% | 2.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.88 | $1.01 | +14.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.76 | $0.88 | +15.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.02 | $1.07 | +4.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.99 | $1.05 | +6.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.65 | $0.73 | +12.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.68 | $0.89 | +30.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.91 | $1.02 | +12.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.01 | $1.12 | +10.9% |
Total return is +65.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +40.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +43.7% | +34.4% | — |
| 1Y | +65.4% | +40.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +57.2% | +38.2% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +32.8% | +19.4% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +35.3% | +22.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) valuation, health, and returns.
XPO Logistics, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -78.4% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $43.19)
XPO Logistics, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $43.19 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $133.97 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $220.00 (implying +10.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
XPO Logistics, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 36/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.0 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.3%.
XPO Logistics, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 0.5% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -0.8% in the last 12 months.
XPO Logistics, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +1.1% 1Y revenue growth and -18.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +1.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 32 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 100% of recent quarters with a 24-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +10.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for XPO Logistics, Inc. include: -15.6% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.51x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.51x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.