MODEL VERDICT
Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $17.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $5.93 | -63.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $0.35 | -97.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $10.47 | -36.2% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 1 industry peers | $3.69 | -77.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $5.89 | -64.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $0.62 | -96.2% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $2.10 | -87.2% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $2.82 | -82.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.02 | -69.4% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 40× | 44× (Current) | 48× | 52× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates XZO's fair value at $5.02 vs the current price of $16.40, implying -69.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.19 (P10) to $5.44 (P90), with a median of $4.80.
XZO's current P/E of 44.3x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +176.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for XZO.
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for XZO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.