Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$9.38
→
Intrinsic$103.39
+1002%
$72.15$103.39$162.67
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests YMM could have 1002% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $9, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $72 → Bull $163. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $126 | $136 | $146 | $157 |
| 10% | $90 | $96 | $103 | $111 |
| 12% | $70 | $75 | $80 | $85 |
| 14% | $57 | $61 | $65 | $69 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($163) offers 1634% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($72) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$3.62B
Year 2$4.52B
Year 3$5.65B
Year 4$7.07B
Year 5$8.84B
Terminal$130.01B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.90BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.