MODEL VERDICT
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.47 | Pending | -5.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $96.92 | +933.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $84.12 | +796.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $77.42 | +725.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $54.10 | +476.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $65.52 | +598.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $56.98 | +507.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $45.43 | +384.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $38.43 | +309.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $85.86 | +815.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $54.16 | +477.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.54 | +705.3% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 |
| Conservative (7%) | $56 | $63 | $69 | $75 | $81 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $58 | $65 | $71 | $78 | $84 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $60 | $67 | $73 | $80 | $87 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.06 | 3.68 | 3.50 | 20.00 | 9.47 |
| P/FFO | 8.09 | 3.59 | 3.24 | 17.43 | 8.09 |
| P/TBV | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.05 |
| P/AFFO | 9.38 | 3.68 | 3.39 | 21.08 | 10.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.30 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.28 | 1.14 | 0.88 | 1.93 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates YMM's fair value at $75.54 vs the current price of $9.38, implying +705.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.88 (P10) to $86.08 (P90), with a median of $70.86.
YMM's current P/E of 21.9x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -16.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.1x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
3 analysts cover YMM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.67 (range: $8.00 — $14.00), implying +24.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: YMM trades at the 3660th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for YMM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.