Zillow Group, Inc. Class A (ZG) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Popular:
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $-158M | $-112M | $23M | $274M | $334M | $118M | $153M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.68 | $-0.48 | $0.09 | $0.99 | $1.12 | $0.36 | $0.43 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | +1091.1% | +22.1% | -64.7% | +29.5% |
| Net Margin | -8.1% | -5.0% | 0.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% |
| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.3B | $3.6B | $3.9B |
| Net Income | $23M | $274M | $334M | $118M | $153M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.09 | $0.99 | $1.12 | $0.36 | $0.43 |
| Free Cash Flow | $235M | $16M | $26M | $35M | $46M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Zillow Group, Inc. Class A's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $0.99. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 46/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Zillow Group, Inc. Class A: Bear case $8, Base case $45, and Bull case $-8. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Zillow Group, Inc. Class A's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 13.8%, reaching approximately $2.9B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 46/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Zillow Group, Inc. Class A's forward operating margin is estimated at -2.3% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($8) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 54.9% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 40% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.