Upside case
Bull case
$76+372.3%
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing AAL more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
17 bullish · 3 bearish · 37 covering AAL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
17
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$17
+7.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$36 – $76
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.6B
AAL price targets
Three scenarios for where AAL stock could go
Current
~$16
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $16
Bear
$36
Base
$57
Bull
$76
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$57+258.5%
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
$36+125.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push AAL down roughly 126% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
American Airlines Group Inc.
AAL · NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesDecember year-end
American Airlines is a major U.S. network airline that operates scheduled passenger and cargo flights through its extensive hub system across North America and key international gateways. It generates revenue primarily from passenger tickets (~85% of revenue) and cargo services, supplemented by loyalty program sales and ancillary fees. Its competitive advantage lies in its massive domestic route network—the largest among U.S. carriers—and membership in the Oneworld alliance, which provides global connectivity.
Market Cap
$10.6B
Revenue TTM
$56.0B
Net Income TTM
$202M
Net Margin
0.4%
AAL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+53.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.95/$0.78
Revenue
$14.4B/$14.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.17/$-0.28
Revenue
$13.7B/$13.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.16/$0.38
Revenue
$14.0B/$14.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.40/$-0.45
Revenue
$13.9B/$13.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.95/$0.78 | +21.8% | $14.4B/$14.3B | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.17/$-0.28 | +38.9% | $13.7B/$13.6B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.16/$0.38 | -57.9% | $14.0B/$14.0B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.40/$-0.45 | +11.1% | $13.9B/$13.8B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$60.8B
+8.5% YoY
FY2
$65.1B
+7.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.28
-6.9% YoY
FY2
$1.27
+348.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.9B
FCF Margin: 3.4%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.02
Expected Revenue
$16.7B
AAL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AAL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $100.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Passenger
49.5%
+0.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Domestic Destination
70.9%
-0.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Passenger is the largest disclosed segment at 49.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.1% YoY.
Domestic Destination is the largest reported region at 70.9%, down 0.4% YoY.
AAL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $15 — implies -5.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
5.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AAL
94.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+285% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
AAL
94.1x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+268% premium
vs AAL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
94.1x
vs
5Y Average
45.8x
+105% premium
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Industrials
21.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
94.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+285%
Industrials
25.6x
+268%
5Y Avg
45.8x
+105%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-14%
Industrials
13.9x
-6%
5Y Avg
18.7x
-30%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Industrials
20.0x
—
5Y Avg
13.7x
—
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-94%
Industrials
1.6x
-88%
5Y Avg
0.2x
-17%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Industrials
1.21%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AAL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg AAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 21.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 94.1x | 24.4x+285% | 25.6x+268% | 45.8x+105% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0x | 15.2x-14% | 13.9x | 18.7x-30% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 20.0x | 13.7x |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-94% | 1.6x-88% | 0.2x-17% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.21% | — |
AAL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAAL Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for AAL are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$56.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.31
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$34.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
17.9× FCF
~17.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
660M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAAL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Operational challenges
Investor concerns over looming operational challenges and dissatisfaction with company performance have led to a stock decline.
High Risk
Geopolitical tensions
Rising Middle East tensions are impacting airline futures and putting pressure on the sector.
High Risk
Weaker travel demand
Reports of weaker-than-expected travel demand have contributed to a decline in stock price.
High Risk
Fuel cost pressure
Fuel costs have jumped by more than $4B, slashing earnings guidance and erasing much of the growth story.
Medium
Pilot dissatisfaction
CEO plans to meet with pilots due to dissatisfaction with company performance and organization.
Medium
Debt load concerns
The company has the industry's heaviest debt load, which remains a concern post-pandemic.
Lower
Strategic pivots
Past strategic pivots have alienated corporate travel partners, impacting long-term relationships.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AAL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Attractive valuation metrics
AAL's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 16.15 and 7.28 respectively suggest the stock may be undervalued relative to earnings potential.
Leverage improvement potential
The bull case for AAL depends on net leverage falling below 3.0x by 2027, which could drive multiple expansion if achieved.
Strategic partnership benefits
The upcoming Alaska Airlines partnership payoff could provide operational and financial benefits to American Airlines.
Premium leisure demand shift
The aviation industry is seeing a structural shift toward premium leisure demand, which could benefit American Airlines' offerings.
Aggressive travel promotions
American Airlines is offering attractive vacation packages, discount tickets, and mileage bonuses to stimulate demand.
Mobile app convenience
The American Airlines app provides convenient travel management features that may enhance customer loyalty and engagement.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AAL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$15.99
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$10.09
+58.5% from the low
52-Week High
$16.50
-3.1% from the high
1 Month
+29.37%
3 Month
+48.06%
YTD
+3.3%
1 Year
+51.1%
3Y CAGR
-0.7%
5Y CAGR
-6.4%
10Y CAGR
-6.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AAL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 16.7x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+8.5%
vs +10.0% median
-15% below peer median
Net Margin
0.4%
vs 2.8% median
-87% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAL AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | $10.6B | — | +8.5% | 0.4% | Buy | +7.9% |
DAL DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $55.0B | 15.4x | +7.1% | 7.9% | Buy | +3.2% |
UAL UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $38.4B | 12.6x | +10.0% | 6.1% | Buy | +18.0% |
LUV LUV Southwest Airlines Co. | $23.6B | 18.0x | +10.7% | 2.8% | Hold | +1.6% |
JBL JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation | $2.1B | — | +9.9% | -7.8% | Hold | -1.8% |
ALG ALGT Allegiant Travel Company | $1.9B | 24.6x | +10.4% | -1.7% | Hold | +10.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AAL Dividend and Capital Return
AAL does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
660M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $0.10 | -75.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| 2019 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% |
| 2018 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% |
| 2017 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% |
| 2016 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 17.3% | 18.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsAAL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $17, implying +7.9% from the current price of $16. The bear case scenario is $36 and the bull case is $76.
02What is the AAL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AAL is $17 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $24 (+50.1% from today), and the low-end target is $14 (-15.6%). The base case model target is $57.
03Is American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for AAL is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AAL in 2026 are: (1) Operational challenges — Investor concerns over looming operational challenges and dissatisfaction with company performance have led to a stock decline. (2) Geopolitical tensions — Rising Middle East tensions are impacting airline futures and putting pressure on the sector. (3) Weaker travel demand — Reports of weaker-than-expected travel demand have contributed to a decline in stock price. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is American Airlines Group Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AAL will report consensus revenue of $60.8B (+8.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.28 (-6.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $65.1B in revenue.
06When does American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) report its next earnings?
American Airlines Group Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.02 and revenue of $16.7B. Over recent quarters, AAL has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does American Airlines Group Inc. generate?
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) generated $1.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.4%. AAL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).