Upside case
Bull case
$75-10.6%
The bull case prices ACM at 13x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Aecom (ACM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 25 covering ACM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
8
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$126
+49.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$21 – $75
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.1B
ACM price targets
Three scenarios for where ACM stock could go
Current
~$84
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $84
Bear
$21
Base
$90
Bull
$75
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$90+7.6%
This is close to how the market is already pricing ACM — at roughly 15x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$21-75.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push ACM down roughly 75% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Aecom
ACM · NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSeptember year-end
AECOM is a global infrastructure consulting firm that provides planning, design, and construction management services for transportation, water, and environmental projects. It generates revenue primarily through professional services fees from government and commercial clients across its Americas (~70% of revenue) and International segments, supplemented by real estate development through its AECOM Capital arm. The company's competitive advantage lies in its global scale, technical expertise across the entire project lifecycle, and long-term government relationships that create recurring revenue streams.
Market Cap
$11.1B
Revenue TTM
$16.0B
Net Income TTM
$469M
Net Margin
2.9%
ACM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.19
Revenue
$3.8B/$1.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.26
Revenue
$4.2B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.36/$1.34
Revenue
$4.2B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.29/$1.41
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.25/$1.19 | +5.0% | $3.8B/$1.9B | +98.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.34/$1.26 | +6.3% | $4.2B/$1.9B | +116.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.36/$1.34 | +1.5% | $4.2B/$1.9B | +114.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.29/$1.41 | -8.5% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +5.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.7B
-7.7% YoY
FY2
$15.6B
+5.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.24
+19.2% YoY
FY2
$4.53
+6.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$644M
FCF Margin: 4.0%
Next Earnings
May 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.58
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
ACM beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ACM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Americas Segment
77.6%
+0.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
77.6%
+0.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 77.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.3% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 77.6%, up 0.3% YoY.
ACM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $161 — implies +91.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
91.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ACM
19.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
21% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ACM
19.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
23% discount
vs ACM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.9x
vs
5Y Average
37.9x
47% discount
Forward PE
14.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-26%
Industrials
20.8x
-32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-21%
Industrials
25.9x
-23%
5Y Avg
37.9x
-47%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-30%
Industrials
13.9x
-23%
5Y Avg
17.1x
-37%
Price/FCF
16.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-24%
Industrials
20.6x
-22%
5Y Avg
19.7x
-18%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-78%
Industrials
1.6x
-57%
5Y Avg
0.8x
-19%
Dividend Yield
1.19%
S&P 500
1.88%
-36%
Industrials
1.24%
-3%
5Y Avg
0.77%
+56%
| Metric | ACM | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ACM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.2x | 19.1x-26% | 20.8x-32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.9x | 25.2x-21% | 25.9x-23% | 37.9x-47% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7x | 15.3x-30% | 13.9x-23% | 17.1x-37% |
| Price/FCF | 16.1x | 21.3x-24% | 20.6x-22% | 19.7x-18% |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-78% | 1.6x-57% | 0.8x-19% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.19% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.77% |
ACM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolACM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ACM 18.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 4.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
7.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.56
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$644M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.8× FCF
~2.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.7%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
3.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$388M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
133M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageACM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Reliance on Government Contracts
AECOM derives a significant portion of its revenue from government contracts, making it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in government spending and policy changes. Any reductions in budget allocations could adversely affect its financial performance.
High Risk
Geopolitical and Export Controls
ACM Research's substantial exposure to the Chinese market subjects it to U.S. outbound investment restrictions and export controls. These regulations could severely limit its operational capabilities and growth prospects.
High Risk
Economic Weakness and Labor Shortages
Broader economic downturns can lead to reduced client spending on infrastructure projects, while labor shortages may increase operational costs and delay project timelines. This dual threat can significantly impact AECOM's profitability.
High Risk
Competition
AECOM operates in a highly competitive environment, facing threats from both established firms and innovative startups. This competition can erode market share and pressure profit margins, impacting overall financial health.
Medium
Demand Volatility in Semiconductor Industry
The semiconductor industry is characterized by cyclical demand, and a downturn in spending, particularly in AI and data centers, could lead to underutilized capacity for ACM Research. This scenario may pressure profit margins and overall revenue.
Medium
Margin Squeeze
AECOM faces the risk of profit margin compression due to rising operational costs and competitive pressures. This squeeze could hinder the company's ability to deliver satisfactory earnings.
Medium
Cyclical Demand
The demand for AECOM's services is cyclical and can be adversely affected by sudden economic changes, such as rising interest rates or economic downturns. These fluctuations can lead to unpredictable revenue streams.
Lower
Dividend Uncertainty
Although AECOM has initiated dividend payments, there is no assurance regarding the timing, amount, or sustainability of these dividends. This uncertainty may affect investor confidence.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ACM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Growth
AECOM has shown significant growth in Adjusted EBITDA, increasing from $657 million in fiscal year 2019 to $1,095 million in fiscal year 2024, with an approximate 11% compound annual growth rate. Their Adjusted EBITDA margin has also improved, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.
Infrastructure Spending and Megatrends
Long-term infrastructure spending, federal programs, and megatrends like AI are expected to support AECOM's revenue growth. The company is involved in major projects across transportation, water, environment, and energy sectors, which could lead to stronger margins and earnings quality.
Strategic Initiatives
AECOM is prioritizing AI-driven design and advisory services, with plans to divest its Construction Management segment to fund share repurchases. They have also raised their full-year guidance and increased their share repurchase authorization.
Analyst Consensus
The consensus rating among analysts is 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy,' indicating a generally positive outlook for AECOM. This consensus reflects confidence in the company's growth potential and strategic direction.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ACM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$83.92
52W Range Position
9%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$79.01
+6.2% from the low
52-Week High
$135.52
-38.1% from the high
1 Month
-1.25%
3 Month
-16.94%
YTD
-12.9%
1 Year
-18.5%
3Y CAGR
+0.6%
5Y CAGR
+4.0%
10Y CAGR
+10.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ACM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.2x
vs 51.1x median
-72% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-7.7%
vs +14.2% median
-154% below peer median
Net Margin
2.9%
vs 3.7% median
-21% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ACM ACM Aecom | $11.1B | 14.2x | -7.7% | 2.9% | Buy | +49.7% |
J J Jacobs Solutions Inc. | $14.9B | 17.8x | -5.8% | 1.9% | Buy | +22.3% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $117.8B | 60.0x | +14.9% | 3.7% | Buy | -17.6% |
MTZ MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $34.2B | 51.1x | +14.3% | 3.0% | Buy | -23.8% |
STR STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | $27.2B | 64.6x | +14.2% | 12.0% | Buy | -44.9% |
KBR KBR KBR, Inc. | $4.5B | 9.2x | +3.0% | 5.2% | Buy | +47.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ACM Dividend and Capital Return
ACM returns capital mainly through $388M/year in buybacks (3.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.19% dividend — combining for 4.7% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.5%
Dividend Yield
1.19%
Payout Ratio
23.8%
How ACM Splits Its Return
Div 1.19%
Buyback 3.5%
Dividend 1.19%Buybacks 3.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
20.1%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$388M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
133M
At 3.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.04 | +18.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% |
| 2024 | $0.88 | +22.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% |
| 2023 | $0.72 | +20.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% |
| 2022 | $0.60 | — | 4.8% | 5.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsACM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Aecom (ACM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Aecom (ACM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $126, implying +49.7% from the current price of $84. The bear case scenario is $21 and the bull case is $75.
02What is the ACM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ACM is $126 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $145 (+72.8% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (+19.2%). The base case model target is $90.
03Is Aecom (ACM) stock overvalued in 2026?
ACM trades at 14.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Aecom (ACM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ACM in 2026 are: (1) Reliance on Government Contracts — AECOM derives a significant portion of its revenue from government contracts, making it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in government spending and policy changes. (2) Geopolitical and Export Controls — ACM Research's substantial exposure to the Chinese market subjects it to U. (3) Economic Weakness and Labor Shortages — Broader economic downturns can lead to reduced client spending on infrastructure projects, while labor shortages may increase operational costs and delay project timelines. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Aecom's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ACM will report consensus revenue of $14.7B (-7.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.24 (+19.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.6B in revenue.
06When does Aecom (ACM) report its next earnings?
Aecom is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-11. Consensus expects EPS of $1.58 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, ACM has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Aecom generate?
Aecom (ACM) generated $644M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.0%. ACM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($388M TTM).