Upside case
Bull case
$391+100.6%
ADBE would need investors to value it at roughly 16x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
63
analysts
30 bullish · 4 bearish · 63 covering ADBE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
29
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$260
+33.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$187 – $391
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
63
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $78.9B
ADBE price targets
Three scenarios for where ADBE stock could go
Current
~$195
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $195
Bear
$187
Base
$297
Bull
$391
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$297+52.2%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$187-4.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push ADBE down roughly 4% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Adobe Inc.
ADBE · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureNovember year-end
Adobe is a software company that provides creative, document, and customer experience management tools through cloud-based subscription services. It generates revenue primarily from its Digital Media segment — including Creative Cloud and Document Cloud subscriptions — which contributes about 70% of total revenue, with the remaining 30% coming from its Digital Experience platform for marketers and businesses. Adobe's competitive moat lies in its industry-standard creative software ecosystem — Photoshop, Illustrator, and Acrobat are deeply embedded in professional workflows — creating high switching costs and network effects.
Market Cap
$78.9B
Revenue TTM
$25.2B
Net Income TTM
$7.2B
Net Margin
28.7%
ADBE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$5.50/$5.40
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.45/$5.40
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.06/$5.87
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.96/$5.82
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $5.50/$5.40 | +1.9% | $6.2B/$6.1B | +1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.45/$5.40 | -17.6% | $6.2B/$6.1B | +1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.06/$5.87 | +3.2% | $6.4B/$6.3B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.96/$5.82 | +2.4% | $6.6B/$6.5B | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$27.1B
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$29.0B
+7.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$22.18
+23.3% YoY
FY2
$24.32
+9.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$10.6B
FCF Margin: 42.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ADBE beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ADBE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $23.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Digital Media
74.3%
+11.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
59.4%
+9.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Digital Media is the largest disclosed segment at 74.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.3% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 59.4%, up 9.5% YoY.
ADBE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $486 — implies +149.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
149.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ADBE
11.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
52% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ADBE
11.7x
vs
Technology
29.0x
60% discount
vs ADBE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.7x
vs
5Y Average
41.6x
72% discount
Forward PE
8.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-57%
Technology
22.3x
-64%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-52%
Technology
29.0x
-60%
5Y Avg
41.6x
-72%
PEG Ratio
1.29x
S&P 500
1.66x
-22%
Technology
1.51x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-45%
Technology
16.6x
-49%
5Y Avg
29.9x
-72%
Price/FCF
8.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-61%
Technology
19.2x
-58%
5Y Avg
29.8x
-73%
Price/Sales
3.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+7%
Technology
2.4x
+36%
5Y Avg
11.8x
-72%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ADBE | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ADBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.0x | 18.8x-57% | 22.3x-64% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.7x | 24.4x-52% | 29.0x-60% | 41.6x-72% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.29x | 1.66x-22% | 1.51x-14% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4x | 15.2x-45% | 16.6x-49% | 29.9x-72% |
| Price/FCF | 8.0x | 20.7x-61% | 19.2x-58% | 29.8x-73% |
| Price/Sales | 3.3x | 3.1x | 2.4x+36% | 11.8x-72% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
ADBE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolADBE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ADBE generates $10.6B in free cash flow at a 42.2% margin — 51.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 14.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
89.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
36.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
28.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.98
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$10.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
42.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
51.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
24.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.1× FCF
~0.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
62.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
14.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
14.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$11.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
404M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageADBE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
AI-driven growth skepticism
Some analysts question the sustainability of Adobe's AI-driven growth, suggesting potential overestimation of its impact.
Medium
Seat compression concerns
There are concerns about 'Seat Compression' potentially limiting Adobe's revenue growth from existing customers.
Lower
Capital allocation risks
Management's capital allocation decisions could pose risks if not aligned with shareholder value creation.
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
Despite a 32% margin of safety, there is risk of valuation de-rating if growth expectations are not met.
Medium
Competitive pressures
Increasing competition in digital media and marketing solutions could erode Adobe's market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ADBE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Digital experiences leadership
Adobe is a leader in enabling customers to create, deliver, and optimize digital content and applications, positioning it at the forefront of digital transformation.
High-margin cash-generative business
Adobe's business model is characterized by high margins and strong cash generation, supported by its resilient Digital Media and Digital Experience segments.
Strong balance sheet
Adobe maintains a robust balance sheet, providing financial stability and flexibility to invest in growth opportunities.
Vast partner ecosystem
Adobe's extensive partner network lowers customer acquisition costs and enhances its market reach, contributing to scalable growth.
Mobile and cloud expansion
Adobe's strategic push into mobile and cloud access aims to expand its addressable market beyond traditional desktop users, driving future growth.
Trusted PDF solutions
Adobe's Acrobat Reader and PDF tools are globally trusted, reinforcing its dominance in document management and collaboration.
Resilient business segments
Adobe's Digital Media and Digital Experience segments demonstrate resilience, underpinning consistent revenue and profitability.
Scalable growth model
Adobe's growth strategy is designed for scale, leveraging structural advantages to sustain long-term expansion and market leadership.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ADBE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$195.16
52W Range Position
2%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$190.12
+2.7% from the low
52-Week High
$392.58
-50.3% from the high
1 Month
-23.66%
3 Month
-20.67%
YTD
-41.4%
1 Year
-48.4%
3Y CAGR
-26.2%
5Y CAGR
-19.2%
10Y CAGR
+7.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ADBE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.0x
vs 22.6x median
-64% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.6%
vs +9.2% median
-17% below peer median
Net Margin
28.7%
vs 21.9% median
+31% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADB ADBE Adobe Inc. | $78.9B | 8.0x | +7.6% | 28.7% | Buy | +33.1% |
CRM CRM Salesforce, Inc. | $124.3B | 12.9x | +9.2% | 18.7% | Buy | +75.1% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $2.82T | 22.6x | +8.8% | 39.3% | Buy | +45.5% |
ORC ORCL Oracle Corporation | $530.1B | 22.9x | +15.9% | 25.4% | Buy | +37.5% |
NOW NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $98.5B | 22.9x | +16.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +58.1% |
INT INTU Intuit Inc. | $73.0B | 11.2x | +8.5% | 21.9% | Buy | +69.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ADBE Dividend and Capital Return
ADBE returns 14.3% annually — null% through dividends and 14.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
14.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
14.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$11.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
58M
Approx. Share Reduction
14.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
404M
At 14.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | $0.01 | -80.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 2004 | $0.03 | +25.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% |
| 2003 | $0.03 | +33.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| 2002 | $0.02 | -40.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
| 2001 | $0.03 | +73.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsADBE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Adobe Inc. (ADBE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 63 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 29 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $260, implying +33.1% from the current price of $195. The bear case scenario is $187 and the bull case is $391.
02What is the ADBE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ADBE is $260 based on 63 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $379 (+94.2% from today), and the low-end target is $190 (-2.6%). The base case model target is $297.
03Is Adobe Inc. (ADBE) stock overvalued in 2026?
ADBE trades at 8.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ADBE in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — Despite a 32% margin of safety, there is risk of valuation de-rating if growth expectations are not met. (2) AI-driven growth skepticism — Some analysts question the sustainability of Adobe's AI-driven growth, suggesting potential overestimation of its impact. (3) Seat compression concerns — There are concerns about 'Seat Compression' potentially limiting Adobe's revenue growth from existing customers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Adobe Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ADBE will report consensus revenue of $27.1B (+7.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $22.18 (+23.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.0B in revenue.
06When does Adobe Inc. (ADBE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ADBE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Adobe Inc. generate?
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) generated $10.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 42.2%. ADBE returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($11.3B TTM).