Upside case
Bull case
$324+145.0%
AFG would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
17
analysts
7 bullish · 0 bearish · 17 covering AFG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$154
+16.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$67 – $324
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.0B
AFG price targets
Three scenarios for where AFG stock could go
Current
~$132
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $132
Bear
$67
Base
$147
Bull
$324
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$147+11.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AFG — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$67-49.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push AFG down roughly 49% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
American Financial Group, Inc.
AFG · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyDecember year-end
American Financial Group is a specialty property and casualty insurance holding company that provides customized insurance products through independent agents and brokers. It generates revenue primarily from three segments: property and transportation insurance (~40% of premiums), specialty casualty insurance (~35%), and specialty financial insurance (~25%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in niche specialty markets and long-standing relationships with independent distribution channels.
Market Cap
$11.0B
Revenue TTM
$8.1B
Net Income TTM
$842M
Net Margin
10.3%
AFG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.14/$2.08
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.69/$2.52
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.65/$3.18
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.47/$2.55
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.14/$2.08 | +2.9% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.69/$2.52 | +6.7% | $2.3B/$2.0B | +16.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.65/$3.18 | +14.8% | $1.4B/$1.9B | -23.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.47/$2.55 | -3.1% | $1.7B/$1.7B | -2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.2B
+1.1% YoY
FY2
$8.5B
+3.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.69
+5.9% YoY
FY2
$11.19
+4.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 17.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AFG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AFG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Property and Casualty Insurance
95.3%
-0.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Property and Casualty Insurance is the largest disclosed segment at 95.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 0.6% YoY.
AFG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $126 — implies -4.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AFG
13.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
48% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
AFG
13.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
In line with benchmark
vs AFG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.1x
vs
5Y Average
11.5x
+15% premium
Forward PE
11.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-38%
Financial Services
10.5x
+13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-48%
Financial Services
13.4x
-2%
5Y Avg
11.5x
+15%
PEG Ratio
3.13x
S&P 500
1.75x
+79%
Financial Services
1.03x
+205%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
-37%
Financial Services
11.4x
-16%
5Y Avg
9.4x
+1%
Price/FCF
7.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-63%
Financial Services
10.6x
-26%
5Y Avg
8.4x
-6%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-57%
Financial Services
2.3x
-40%
5Y Avg
1.5x
-13%
Dividend Yield
5.49%
S&P 500
1.88%
+192%
Financial Services
2.68%
+104%
5Y Avg
7.33%
-25%
| Metric | AFG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg AFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.8x | 19.1x-38% | 10.5x+13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.1x | 25.2x-48% | 13.4x | 11.5x+15% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.13x | 1.75x+79% | 1.03x+205% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6x | 15.3x-37% | 11.4x-16% | 9.4x |
| Price/FCF | 7.9x | 21.3x-63% | 10.6x-26% | 8.4x |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-57% | 2.3x-40% | 1.5x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.49% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 7.33% |
AFG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAFG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AFG posts 10.3% net margin with 18.2% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.10
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
18.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$93M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.4%
Dividend
5.5%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$99M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$7.26
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
72.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
83M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageAFG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Catastrophe Losses
AFG's underwriting profit is significantly impacted by catastrophe losses, which can fluctuate dramatically from year to year. This risk is particularly pronounced for companies with concentrated geographic profiles, making them vulnerable to severe weather events.
High Risk
Market Risks
AFG is exposed to substantial market risks, including interest rate fluctuations that can adversely affect the fair value and net investment income of its fixed-maturity investments. This exposure may lead to increased unrealized losses and potential issuer defaults.
Medium
Regulatory and Legislative Risks
Certain business segments within AFG may encounter heightened regulatory and legislative risks due to their concentrated industry or geographic profiles. This could result in increased compliance costs and operational challenges.
Medium
Economic and Industry Trends
Broader economic conditions and trends within the insurance sector can significantly influence AFG's performance. For example, a shift away from defensive financial companies to more risk-on sectors may negatively impact insurance stocks, including AFG.
Medium
Operational and Legal Risks
AFG faces various operational challenges and legal risks, including exposure to mass tort claims related to asbestos and environmental liabilities. These risks could lead to significant financial liabilities and impact the company's profitability.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
Like many companies in the insurance industry, AFG regularly faces cybersecurity threats, including attempts to gain unauthorized access to its systems. While these threats are ongoing, the company has measures in place to mitigate potential impacts.
Lower
Growth and Profitability Concerns
Analysts have expressed concerns regarding AFG's earnings per share (EPS) growth, which may not keep pace with revenue growth. Projections indicate potential increases in core loss ratios and reduced net investment income, despite anticipated premium growth.
Lower
Valuation Risks
While some analyses suggest AFG may be undervalued, there are indications that a significant amount of optimism is already priced into the stock. This could pose a valuation risk if the company's performance does not meet market expectations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AFG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Growth Potential
Analysts project an increase in net written premiums for 2025 and 2026, indicating expected year-over-year growth. The company's annualized core operating return on equity (ROE) reached 19% in Q3 2025, with core net operating earnings up 16% year-over-year.
Attractive Valuation Metrics
AFG's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 13.04, significantly lower than the market average P/E ratio of approximately 38.28. One analysis suggests AFG is undervalued by 54.5% based on an Excess Returns model.
Consistent Dividend Growth
American Financial Group pays a meaningful dividend with a yield of 2.72%, having increased its dividend for 19 consecutive years. The dividend payout ratio is a healthy 34.96%, indicating sustainability.
Strong Financial Performance
The company has demonstrated strong performance, outperforming the KBW Insurance Index over multiple timeframes. Capital returns to shareholders exceeded $700 million in 2025, including increases in special and regular dividends.
Low Volatility Profile
AFG has a low beta of 0.53, suggesting lower volatility compared to the broader market. This stability can be attractive for risk-averse investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AFG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$132.25
52W Range Position
40%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$120.52
+9.7% from the low
52-Week High
$150.02
-11.8% from the high
1 Month
+1.81%
3 Month
+0.92%
YTD
-1.9%
1 Year
+1.8%
3Y CAGR
+4.5%
5Y CAGR
+0.6%
10Y CAGR
+6.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AFG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.8x
vs 15.9x median
-26% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.1%
vs +5.4% median
-79% below peer median
Net Margin
10.3%
vs 14.1% median
-27% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AFG AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | $11.0B | 11.8x | +1.1% | 10.3% | Hold | +16.1% |
MKL MKL Markel Corporation | $22.3B | 15.9x | +3.4% | 10.7% | Hold | +9.2% |
RLI RLI RLI Corp. | $4.5B | 17.7x | +7.0% | 20.8% | Hold | +14.9% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.7B | 10.1x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.9% |
WRB WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $24.8B | 14.2x | +1.3% | 12.1% | Hold | +6.3% |
CIN CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation | $25.0B | 18.5x | +7.6% | 21.3% | Buy | +8.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AFG Dividend and Capital Return
AFG returns 6.4% total yield, led by a 5.49% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.9%.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
5.49%
Payout Ratio
72.0%
How AFG Splits Its Return
Div 5.49%
Dividend 5.49%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$7.26
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-20.2%
5Y Div CAGR
13.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
6 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$99M
Estimated Shares Retired
748.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
83M
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.28 | -22.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | $9.43 | +16.4% | — | — |
| 2023 | $8.10 | -43.4% | — | — |
| 2022 | $14.31 | -49.0% | 0.1% | 10.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsAFG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $154, implying +16.1% from the current price of $132. The bear case scenario is $67 and the bull case is $324.
02What is the AFG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AFG is $154 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $165 (+24.8% from today), and the low-end target is $142 (+7.4%). The base case model target is $147.
03Is American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) stock overvalued in 2026?
AFG trades at 11.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AFG in 2026 are: (1) Catastrophe Losses — AFG's underwriting profit is significantly impacted by catastrophe losses, which can fluctuate dramatically from year to year. (2) Market Risks — AFG is exposed to substantial market risks, including interest rate fluctuations that can adversely affect the fair value and net investment income of its fixed-maturity investments. (3) Regulatory and Legislative Risks — Certain business segments within AFG may encounter heightened regulatory and legislative risks due to their concentrated industry or geographic profiles. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is American Financial Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AFG will report consensus revenue of $8.2B (+1.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.69 (+5.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.5B in revenue.
06When does American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AFG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does American Financial Group, Inc. generate?
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.9%. AFG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.5% yield) and share repurchases ($99M TTM).