Upside case
Bull case
$5930+232.1%
MKL would need investors to value it at roughly 53x earnings — about 37x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Markel Corporation (MKL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
15
analysts
0 bullish · 3 bearish · 15 covering MKL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
12
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1950
+9.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$27 – $5930
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.3B
MKL price targets
Three scenarios for where MKL stock could go
Current
~$1786
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1786
Bear
$27
Base
$1836
Bull
$5930
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1836+2.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MKL — at roughly 16x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$27-98.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push MKL down roughly 98% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Markel Corporation
MKL · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyDecember year-end
Markel Corporation is a diversified financial holding company that operates as a specialty insurer and investor. It generates revenue primarily through insurance underwriting — offering specialty property and casualty insurance and reinsurance — and investment income from its substantial float, with its Markel Ventures segment providing additional earnings from industrial operations. The company's key advantage is its disciplined underwriting culture combined with a long-term investment approach modeled after Berkshire Hathaway, creating a durable moat through capital allocation expertise.
Market Cap
$22.3B
Revenue TTM
$16.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
10.7%
MKL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$25.46/$24.97
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$30.90/$24.02
Revenue
$4.4B/$3.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$34.45/$27.62
Revenue
$4.2B/$3.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-18.90/$26.38
Revenue
$2.8B/$3.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $25.46/$24.97 | +2.0% | $4.4B/$4.8B | -8.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $30.90/$24.02 | +28.6% | $4.4B/$3.7B | +17.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.45/$27.62 | +24.7% | $4.2B/$3.6B | +15.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $-18.90/$26.38 | -171.6% | $2.8B/$3.7B | -22.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.1B
+3.4% YoY
FY2
$18.0B
+5.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$155.22
-1.7% YoY
FY2
$173.97
+12.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 13.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MKL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MKL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $16.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Insurance
45.4%
+1.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Insurance is the largest disclosed segment at 45.4% of FY 2024 revenue, up 1.7% YoY.
MKL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $2237 — implies +25.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
25.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MKL
10.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
58% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MKL
10.6x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
21% discount
vs MKL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.6x
vs
5Y Average
9.5x
+11% premium
Forward PE
15.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-17%
Financial Services
10.5x
+51%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-58%
Financial Services
13.4x
-21%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+11%
PEG Ratio
0.42x
S&P 500
1.75x
-76%
Financial Services
1.03x
-59%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-49%
Financial Services
11.4x
-32%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+13%
Price/FCF
8.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-59%
Financial Services
10.6x
-18%
5Y Avg
8.6x
+1%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-57%
Financial Services
2.3x
-40%
5Y Avg
1.4x
-4%
Dividend Yield
2.72%
S&P 500
1.88%
+45%
Financial Services
2.68%
+1%
5Y Avg
0.60%
+350%
| Metric | MKL | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MKL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.9x | 19.1x-17% | 10.5x+51% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.6x | 25.2x-58% | 13.4x-21% | 9.5x+11% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.42x | 1.75x-76% | 1.03x-59% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7x | 15.3x-49% | 11.4x-32% | 6.8x+13% |
| Price/FCF | 8.7x | 21.3x-59% | 10.6x-18% | 8.6x |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-57% | 2.3x-40% | 1.4x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.72% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 0.60% |
MKL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMKL Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
MKL posts 10.7% net margin with 9.6% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$157.85
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
9.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$339M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$430M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$48.55
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
13M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMKL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Projections
Analysts anticipate a 1.5% decrease in Markel Group's revenue over the next 12 months, indicating potential demand challenges for its products and services. This slowdown marks a significant shift from the company's previous growth rate.
High Risk
Insurance Operations
Markel's core insurance segment faces ongoing challenges, with a 5-year average combined ratio of 94.7%, suggesting that claims and expenses are closely aligned with premium income. The slower growth of net premiums earned compared to total revenue points to soft demand in this critical area.
Medium
Economic and Market Risks
Markel Group is exposed to various macroeconomic factors, including potential recessionary impacts and changes in interest rates. The company's investment portfolio, a significant part of its business, is also subject to market fluctuations that could adversely affect financial performance.
Medium
Legacy Reserve Risks
Managing legacy reserve risks within the insurance business is critical and could pressure earnings. These risks may challenge the company's overall valuation if not addressed effectively.
Medium
Competition
The competitive landscape of the insurance market poses a risk to Markel Group. Increased competition could lead to pricing pressures and reduced market share, impacting revenue.
Lower
Social Inflation
Social inflation, characterized by increased liability claim costs due to larger jury verdicts and expanding liability theories, is contributing to higher loss costs for Markel. This trend could further strain the company's financials.
Lower
Strategic Decisions
Strategic exits, such as the sale of renewal rights for its Global Reinsurance division, can impact revenue streams. These decisions may have long-term implications for the company's growth trajectory.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MKL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Diversified Business Model
Markel operates a 'Berkshire-inspired' holding company structure with three core 'flywheels': specialty insurance, private businesses under Markel Ventures, and a long-term equity portfolio. The insurance segment focuses on niche, hard-to-price markets with deep underwriting expertise, prioritizing discipline and relationships over volume.
Compounding Value and Financial Strength
Markel has demonstrated strong financial performance, including an 8.3% sequential increase in book value per share and robust year-over-year growth in investment income. Adjusted operating income for the first quarter of 2026 was $498 million, a 4% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025.
Growth Potential and Valuation
Analysts have recently upgraded MKL stock, with some moving from 'hold' to 'buy' ratings. The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of around 11.25x, which is close to its 5-year median and suggests potential undervaluation relative to its earnings potential.
Strong Institutional Support
Institutional investors hold a significant portion of Markel's shares (over 77%), indicating confidence in its long-term performance. Several investing groups have given Markel high ratings, highlighting its 'Buffett-Like Wealth Compounder' characteristics.
Durable Tailwinds in Insurance Sector
Markel benefits from durable tailwinds such as rising specialty insurance demand, embedded pricing power, and growing float leverage. These factors are expected to support the company's growth and profitability in the coming years.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MKL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1785.58
52W Range Position
14%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$1719.41
+3.8% from the low
52-Week High
$2207.59
-19.1% from the high
1 Month
-6.38%
3 Month
-15.06%
YTD
-16.2%
1 Year
-4.7%
3Y CAGR
+9.1%
5Y CAGR
+8.3%
10Y CAGR
+6.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MKL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.9x
vs 14.2x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.4%
vs +7.0% median
-52% below peer median
Net Margin
10.7%
vs 13.2% median
-19% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MKL MKL Markel Corporation | $22.3B | 15.9x | +3.4% | 10.7% | Hold | +9.2% |
RLI RLI RLI Corp. | $4.5B | 17.7x | +7.0% | 20.8% | Hold | +14.9% |
ERI ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $9.9B | 16.9x | +7.5% | 13.2% | — | — |
HCI HCI HCI Group, Inc. | $2.0B | 9.3x | +20.4% | 33.2% | Buy | -17.9% |
KMP KMPR Kemper Corporation | $1.9B | 8.7x | -5.1% | 0.8% | Buy | +46.6% |
WRB WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $24.8B | 14.2x | +1.3% | 12.1% | Hold | +6.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MKL Dividend and Capital Return
MKL returns 4.7% total yield, led by a 2.75% dividend, raised 6 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.9%.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
2.75%
Payout Ratio
—
How MKL Splits Its Return
Div 2.75%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 2.75%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$48.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.6%
5Y Div CAGR
1.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$430M
Estimated Shares Retired
240.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
13M
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsMKL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Markel Corporation (MKL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Markel Corporation (MKL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 0 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1950, implying +9.2% from the current price of $1786. The bear case scenario is $27 and the bull case is $5930.
02What is the MKL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MKL is $1950 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1950 (+9.2% from today), and the low-end target is $1950 (+9.2%). The base case model target is $1836.
03Is Markel Corporation (MKL) stock overvalued in 2026?
MKL trades at 15.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Markel Corporation (MKL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MKL in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Projections — Analysts anticipate a 1. (2) Insurance Operations — Markel's core insurance segment faces ongoing challenges, with a 5-year average combined ratio of 94. (3) Economic and Market Risks — Markel Group is exposed to various macroeconomic factors, including potential recessionary impacts and changes in interest rates. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Markel Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MKL will report consensus revenue of $17.1B (+3.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $155.22 (-1.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.0B in revenue.
06When does Markel Corporation (MKL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MKL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Markel Corporation generate?
Markel Corporation (MKL) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.2%. MKL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($430M TTM).