Upside case
Bull case
$107+62.2%
WRB would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
30
analysts
6 bullish · 4 bearish · 30 covering WRB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
20
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$70
+6.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$40 – $107
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.8B
WRB price targets
Three scenarios for where WRB stock could go
Current
~$66
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $66
Bear
$40
Base
$83
Bull
$107
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$83+25.1%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$40-40.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push WRB down roughly 40% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
W. R. Berkley Corporation
WRB · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyDecember year-end
W. R. Berkley Corporation is a commercial property and casualty insurance holding company that operates primarily in the United States and internationally. It generates revenue through two main segments: Insurance (roughly 80% of premiums) which underwrites commercial lines like liability, property, and workers' compensation, and Reinsurance & Monoline Excess (roughly 20%) which provides reinsurance and excess coverage to other insurers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its decentralized operating model—allowing local underwriting expertise—and its disciplined focus on specialty commercial lines where it can achieve superior underwriting margins.
Market Cap
$24.8B
Revenue TTM
$14.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
12.1%
WRB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.05/$1.03
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.10/$1.11
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.13/$1.13
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.30/$1.13
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.05/$1.03 | +1.9% | $3.7B/$3.1B | +18.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.10/$1.11 | -0.9% | $3.8B/$3.2B | +19.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.13/$1.13 | +0.0% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.30/$1.13 | +15.0% | $3.1B/$3.2B | -2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.9B
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$16.4B
+9.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.06
+13.5% YoY
FY2
$5.57
+10.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.4B
FCF Margin: 23.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WRB beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
WRB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $12.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Insurance-Domestic Segment
86.8%
+12.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Insurance-Domestic Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 86.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 12.3% YoY.
WRB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $56 — implies -16.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
16.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WRB
14.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
41% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
WRB
14.9x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+11% premium
vs WRB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.9x
vs
5Y Average
14.6x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
14.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-26%
Financial Services
10.5x
+35%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-41%
Financial Services
13.4x
+11%
5Y Avg
14.6x
+2%
PEG Ratio
0.51x
S&P 500
1.75x
-71%
Financial Services
1.03x
-50%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-29%
Financial Services
11.4x
-5%
5Y Avg
12.1x
-10%
Price/FCF
7.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-67%
Financial Services
10.6x
-33%
5Y Avg
7.3x
-3%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-46%
Financial Services
2.3x
-25%
5Y Avg
1.7x
-3%
Dividend Yield
2.65%
S&P 500
1.88%
+41%
Financial Services
2.68%
-1%
5Y Avg
2.17%
+23%
| Metric | WRB | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg WRB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.2x | 19.1x-26% | 10.5x+35% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.9x | 25.2x-41% | 13.4x+11% | 14.6x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.51x | 1.75x-71% | 1.03x-50% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 15.3x-29% | 11.4x | 12.1x |
| Price/FCF | 7.1x | 21.3x-67% | 10.6x-33% | 7.3x |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-46% | 2.3x-25% | 1.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.65% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 2.17% |
WRB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWRB Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
WRB posts 12.1% net margin with 18.9% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.46
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
18.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$300M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$270M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.75
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
374M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageWRB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic and Market Volatility
Fluctuations in inflation and interest rates can significantly impact WRB's investment returns and underwriting profitability. Additionally, the transition from a 'hard market' to a 'soft market' in the property and casualty insurance sector is leading to moderating premium growth and increased competition.
High Risk
Catastrophic Losses
WRB faces substantial financial risks from natural and man-made catastrophes, including those exacerbated by climate change and cybersecurity threats. Such events can lead to significant claims that may adversely affect the company's financial stability.
High Risk
Regulatory Changes
The highly regulated nature of the insurance industry means that legislative or regulatory changes can have a profound impact on WRB's business practices. Evolving regulatory requirements may increase operational costs and impose additional business restrictions.
Medium
Cyclical Nature of Insurance
The insurance industry is inherently cyclical, characterized by periods of intense competition and price undercutting followed by rate increases. This cyclical nature can adversely affect WRB's profitability and growth prospects.
Medium
Pricing Pressures
Softening commercial and reinsurance pricing, along with the risk of loss costs outpacing rates, could squeeze WRB's profit margins. This trend is particularly concerning in the context of competitive pressures in the market.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
The risk of cybersecurity breaches poses a significant threat to WRB's IT systems and those of its vendors and third parties. A successful breach could lead to operational disruptions and financial losses.
Lower
Earnings Misses and Analyst Revisions
A slight miss on fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) and revenue has led to negative analyst revisions and price target reductions. Such revisions can negatively impact investor sentiment and stock performance.
Lower
Investment Fund Losses
A one-off investment fund loss was noted in recent performance, which could impact short-term financial results. While not indicative of ongoing issues, it highlights potential volatility in investment returns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WRB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Financial Strength and Stability
WRB has a strong market capitalization of approximately $24 billion, indicating a solid position in the insurance industry. The company also has a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting financial stability.
Underwriting Profitability
The company's combined ratio has been consistently near 90% (90.7% in Q1 2026), which, along with a firm pricing backdrop, is expected to support further margin expansion. Bulls point to data-driven underwriting and a specialty focus as foundations for stronger earnings power.
Growth Projections
Analysts project a year-over-year increase in earnings per share of 5% for 2026 and 4.6% for 2027. Revenue is also expected to grow, with consensus estimates for 2026 at $15.08 billion, implying a 3.4% year-over-year improvement.
Outperformance and Efficiency
WRB has outperformed its industry peers over the past year, with a return on equity (ROE) for the trailing 12 months at 18.1%, significantly higher than the industry's 7.3%. Return on invested capital (ROIC) has also been increasing and is better than the industry average.
Management Confidence and Capital Deployment
Recent earnings updates link financial outcomes to management's messaging on underwriting selectivity and capital deployment, showing a balance between growth, profitability, and capital returns like buybacks. A significant insider purchase by a major shareholder, acquiring over 200,000 shares, is viewed as a signal of confidence in the company's future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WRB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$66.12
52W Range Position
16%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$63.67
+3.8% from the low
52-Week High
$78.96
-16.3% from the high
1 Month
-0.06%
3 Month
-6.09%
YTD
-4.7%
1 Year
-9.0%
3Y CAGR
+19.1%
5Y CAGR
+13.0%
10Y CAGR
+15.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WRB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.2x
vs 10.1x median
+40% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.3%
vs +5.4% median
-75% below peer median
Net Margin
12.1%
vs 14.1% median
-14% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WRB WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $24.8B | 14.2x | +1.3% | 12.1% | Hold | +6.3% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.7B | 10.1x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.9% |
CNA CNA CNA Financial Corporation | $11.7B | 9.0x | +2.4% | 9.0% | Hold | +3.6% |
MKL MKL Markel Corporation | $22.3B | 15.9x | +3.4% | 10.7% | Hold | +9.2% |
RLI RLI RLI Corp. | $4.5B | 17.7x | +7.0% | 20.8% | Hold | +14.9% |
ACG ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | $33.7B | 10.1x | +8.4% | 22.1% | Buy | +9.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WRB Dividend and Capital Return
WRB returns 3.7% total yield, led by a 2.65% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
2.65%
Payout Ratio
39.4%
How WRB Splits Its Return
Div 2.65%
Buyback 1.1%
Dividend 2.65%Buybacks 1.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.75
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
46.3%
5Y Div CAGR
54.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$270M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
374M
At 1.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.09 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.85 | +32.5% | 1.0% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | $1.40 | +8.5% | 1.3% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $1.29 | +117.7% | 2.8% | 5.4% |
| 2022 | $0.59 | -33.8% | 0.5% | 1.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsWRB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $70, implying +6.3% from the current price of $66. The bear case scenario is $40 and the bull case is $107.
02What is the WRB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WRB is $70 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $80 (+21.0% from today), and the low-end target is $64 (-3.2%). The base case model target is $83.
03Is W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) stock overvalued in 2026?
WRB trades at 14.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WRB in 2026 are: (1) Economic and Market Volatility — Fluctuations in inflation and interest rates can significantly impact WRB's investment returns and underwriting profitability. (2) Catastrophic Losses — WRB faces substantial financial risks from natural and man-made catastrophes, including those exacerbated by climate change and cybersecurity threats. (3) Regulatory Changes — The highly regulated nature of the insurance industry means that legislative or regulatory changes can have a profound impact on WRB's business practices. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is W. R. Berkley Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WRB will report consensus revenue of $14.9B (+1.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.06 (+13.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.4B in revenue.
06When does W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WRB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does W. R. Berkley Corporation generate?
W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) generated $3.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.3%. WRB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($270M TTM).