Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing AG more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
11
analysts
4 bullish · 1 bearish · 11 covering AG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
6
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$27
+25.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.5B
AG price targets
Three scenarios for where AG stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
18 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
First Majestic Silver Corp.
AG · NYSEBasic MaterialsSilverDecember year-end
First Majestic Silver is a silver and gold mining company that acquires, develops, and operates mineral properties primarily in Mexico and the United States. It generates revenue almost entirely from selling silver and gold produced from its mines — with silver contributing roughly 60% of revenue and gold about 40%. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of high-grade silver assets in Mexico's prolific mining districts and its operational expertise in underground mining.
Market Cap
$10.5B
Revenue TTM
$1.3B
Net Income TTM
$174M
Net Margin
13.7%
AG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-114.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.05/$0.06
Revenue
$243M/$351M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.04/$0.06
Revenue
$265M/$387M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.07/$0.11
Revenue
$287M/$308M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.30/$0.22
Revenue
$464M/$404M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.05/$0.06 | -16.7% | $243M/$351M | -30.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.04/$0.06 | -33.3% | $265M/$387M | -31.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.07/$0.11 | -36.4% | $287M/$308M | -6.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.30/$0.22 | +34.7% | $464M/$404M | +14.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+10.8% YoY
FY2
$1.1B
+1.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.19
+23.0% YoY
FY2
$0.07
-64.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$351M
FCF Margin: 27.7%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.38
Expected Revenue
$522M
AG beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $12 — implies -37.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
37.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AG
60.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+140% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
AG
60.5x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
+164% premium
vs AG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
60.5x
vs
5Y Average
47.6x
+27% premium
Forward PE
20.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+6%
Basic Materials
15.4x
+31%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
60.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+140%
Basic Materials
22.9x
+164%
5Y Avg
47.6x
+27%
PEG Ratio
2.32x
S&P 500
1.75x
+33%
Basic Materials
1.22x
+91%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+3%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+37%
5Y Avg
16.2x
-3%
Price/FCF
29.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
+39%
Basic Materials
27.5x
+8%
5Y Avg
33.5x
-11%
Price/Sales
8.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+161%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+316%
5Y Avg
4.1x
+101%
Dividend Yield
0.10%
S&P 500
1.88%
-95%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-93%
5Y Avg
0.25%
-61%
| Metric | AG | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg AG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.2x | 19.1x | 15.4x+31% | — |
| Trailing PE | 60.5x | 25.2x+140% | 22.9x+164% | 47.6x+27% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.32x | 1.75x+33% | 1.22x+91% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.7x | 15.3x | 11.4x+37% | 16.2x |
| Price/FCF | 29.7x | 21.3x+39% | 27.5x | 33.5x-11% |
| Price/Sales | 8.2x | 3.1x+161% | 2.0x+316% | 4.1x+101% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.10% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 0.25% |
AG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AG generates $351M in free cash flow at a 27.7% margin — 13.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+125.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$351M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
27.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$792M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$478M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$9M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
6.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
494M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
The prices of agricultural products and metals are subject to significant fluctuations due to weather, global demand, and supply chain disruptions. Companies like First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) are heavily dependent on silver sales, making them vulnerable to price swings.
High Risk
Government Policies and Trade Uncertainty
Subsidies, tariffs, export bans, and environmental regulations can create or destroy demand overnight, significantly affecting agricultural commodity trading. Geopolitical events and trade tensions can also disrupt global supply chains, impacting revenue.
Medium
Weather and Climate Change
Agricultural businesses are inherently exposed to weather-related risks such as droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures, which can drastically impact crop yields and livestock. These environmental factors can lead to significant revenue losses.
Medium
Operational Risks
Companies may face challenges related to production levels, efficiency, and the integration of new assets. For instance, First Majestic Silver has projected production declines due to transitional challenges across its asset base.
Medium
Financial Risks
Financial risks include interest rate fluctuations, liquidity issues, and the company's debt levels. Research indicates that interest rate risk can positively affect stock returns in the agricultural sector, while exchange rate risk can have a negative impact.
Lower
Market Sentiment and Speculation
Prevailing market sentiment, driven by news or social media, can lead to irrational price movements, especially in volatile sectors like mining. This can create short-term volatility that may not reflect the underlying fundamentals.
Lower
Technological Adoption (AgriTech)
While AgriTech innovations can de-risk the agricultural sector by improving efficiency, companies that fail to offer a quantifiable return on investment for farmers may face challenges. The adoption rate of these technologies can vary significantly.
Lower
Cyclicality
The agricultural sector is highly cyclical, with income and investment capacity fluctuating with seasons and market conditions. This cyclicality can lead to boom-and-bust cycles, impacting long-term financial stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Production Growth and Acquisitions
The acquisition of the Los Gatos Silver Mine has significantly boosted production, and the La Encantada mine has shown a remarkable 20% year-over-year improvement in throughput. First Majestic reported record silver production in Q4, producing 4.2 million ounces, up 77% from the previous year, driven by the Los Gatos acquisition and higher production at other mines.
Favorable Commodity Prices
The company's financial outlook is bolstered by significant increases in commodity prices, with gold rising 72.4%, silver increasing 210.3%, and copper growing 37.4% over the past year. This creates a favorable environment for revenue generation.
Strong Financials and Operations
First Majestic's Q4 revenue surged 169% year-on-year to a record $463.9 million, well above Wall Street's estimates. The company swung to a net profit of $105.2 million from a $13.5 million loss a year earlier, ending 2025 with a record $937.7 million in cash.
Analyst and AI Sentiment
According to Danelfin AI, First Majestic Silver has a 'Strong Buy' rating with an AI Score of 10/10, indicating a 67.77% probability of outperforming the market in the next 3 months. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits flipped to 'bullish' from 'bearish' amid high message volumes.
Potential Upside
The company's focused silver exposure and lower jurisdictional risks within Mexico give it an advantage over diversified peers. The bull case assumes that the current commodity cycle represents a new paradigm, rather than a reversion to the mean.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.18
52W Range Position
59%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$5.49
+285.8% from the low
52-Week High
$32.03
-33.9% from the high
1 Month
-1.03%
3 Month
-3.68%
YTD
+31.9%
1 Year
+231.5%
3Y CAGR
+45.7%
5Y CAGR
+5.9%
10Y CAGR
+7.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.2x
vs 13.2x median
+54% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.8%
vs +31.7% median
-66% below peer median
Net Margin
13.7%
vs 31.1% median
-56% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AG AG First Majestic Silver Corp. | $10.5B | 20.2x | +10.8% | 13.7% | Hold | +25.1% |
PAA PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. | $23.8B | 12.1x | +32.9% | 27.1% | Buy | +32.5% |
HL HL Hecla Mining Company | $12.2B | 19.1x | +30.3% | 35.6% | Hold | +31.3% |
CDE CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. | $12.0B | 9.4x | +66.3% | 31.1% | Buy | +54.7% |
EXK EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. | $2.7B | 13.2x | +29.1% | -28.4% | Buy | +36.9% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $95.1B | 13.6x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +25.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AG Dividend and Capital Return
AG returns 0.2% total yield, led by a 0.10% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
0.10%
Payout Ratio
6.0%
How AG Splits Its Return
Div 0.10%
Buyback 0.1%
Dividend 0.10%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-8.2%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$9M
Estimated Shares Retired
417.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
494M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.01 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.02 | +12.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 2024 | $0.02 | -13.9% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 2023 | $0.02 | -20.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 2022 | $0.03 | +69.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsAG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $27, implying +25.1% from the current price of $21.
02What is the AG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AG is $27 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+41.6% from today), and the low-end target is $23 (+8.6%).
03Is First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) stock overvalued in 2026?
AG trades at 20.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AG in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — The prices of agricultural products and metals are subject to significant fluctuations due to weather, global demand, and supply chain disruptions. (2) Government Policies and Trade Uncertainty — Subsidies, tariffs, export bans, and environmental regulations can create or destroy demand overnight, significantly affecting agricultural commodity trading. (3) Weather and Climate Change — Agricultural businesses are inherently exposed to weather-related risks such as droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures, which can drastically impact crop yields and livestock. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is First Majestic Silver Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AG will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+10.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.19 (+23.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.1B in revenue.
06When does First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) report its next earnings?
First Majestic Silver Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.38 and revenue of $522M. Over recent quarters, AG has beaten EPS estimates 8% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does First Majestic Silver Corp. generate?
First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) generated $351M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 27.7%. AG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($9M TTM).