Upside case
Bull case
$317+77.9%
AEM would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 31 covering AEM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$238
+33.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$49 – $317
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $89.2B
AEM price targets
Three scenarios for where AEM stock could go
Current
~$178
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $178
Bear
$49
Base
$291
Bull
$317
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$291+63.1%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$49-72.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push AEM down roughly 72% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited
AEM · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Agnico Eagle Mines is a senior gold mining company that explores for, develops, and operates gold mines primarily in Canada, Mexico, and Finland. It generates nearly all its revenue from gold sales — with minor contributions from silver, zinc, and copper byproducts — through its portfolio of long-life, low-cost mines. The company's competitive advantage lies in its geographically concentrated, politically stable asset base in tier-one mining jurisdictions and its operational excellence in underground mining.
Market Cap
$89.2B
Revenue TTM
$11.9B
Net Income TTM
$4.4B
Net Margin
37.5%
AEM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.94/$1.83
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.16/$1.76
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.69/$2.58
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.40/$3.19
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.94/$1.83 | +6.0% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.16/$1.76 | +22.7% | $3.0B/$3.4B | -11.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.69/$2.58 | +4.3% | $3.5B/$3.4B | +3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.40/$3.19 | +6.6% | $4.0B/$4.0B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.6B
+31.7% YoY
FY2
$18.4B
+17.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.13
+37.1% YoY
FY2
$14.45
+19.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
FCF Margin: 37.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AEM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AEM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Canada
92.2%
+49.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Canada is the largest reported region at 92.2%, up 49.0% YoY.
AEM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $144 — implies -21.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
21.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AEM
20.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
20% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
AEM
20.1x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
10% discount
vs AEM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.1x
vs
5Y Average
22.2x
9% discount
Forward PE
12.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-33%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-20%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-10%
5Y Avg
22.2x
-9%
PEG Ratio
0.60x
S&P 500
1.72x
-65%
Basic Materials
1.17x
-49%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-29%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-1%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+20%
Price/FCF
20.9x
S&P 500
21.1x
-1%
Basic Materials
25.6x
-18%
5Y Avg
28.1x
-25%
Price/Sales
7.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+140%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+296%
5Y Avg
4.7x
+60%
Dividend Yield
0.81%
S&P 500
1.87%
-57%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-39%
5Y Avg
1.95%
-58%
| Metric | AEM | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg AEM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.8x | 19.1x-33% | 15.2x-16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.1x | 25.1x-20% | 22.3x | 22.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.60x | 1.72x-65% | 1.17x-49% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 15.2x-29% | 11.0x | 9.0x+20% |
| Price/FCF | 20.9x | 21.1x | 25.6x-18% | 28.1x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 7.5x | 3.1x+140% | 1.9x+296% | 4.7x+60% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.81% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 1.95% |
AEM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAEM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AEM generates $4.4B in free cash flow at a 37.1% margin — 21.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+44.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
57.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
52.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
37.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
37.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
21.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$683M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
16.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
501M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAEM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Agnico Eagle’s profitability is tightly linked to gold price movements. Sharp swings in the spot gold price can amplify earnings volatility, directly impacting share price and cash flow generation.
Medium
Operational Challenges
The company has faced operational setbacks, notably limitations with its #3 Shaft that have disrupted mining output. Ongoing infrastructure issues and reliance on continued exploration add uncertainty to production timelines.
Medium
Geopolitical & Environmental Factors
AEM operates in multiple jurisdictions, exposing it to geopolitical instability and evolving environmental regulations. Changes in local policy or regulatory enforcement could increase compliance costs or halt operations.
Medium
Cyclical Nature of the Industry
Gold mining is inherently cyclical; the spread between all‑in sustaining costs and gold prices can narrow during downturns. A tighter cost‑price spread reduces margin and can erode profitability.
Lower
Cost Expectations
The company’s guidance has highlighted higher cost expectations compared to prior periods, potentially pressuring investor sentiment during metal price pullbacks.
Lower
Valuation
AEM’s current price‑to‑earnings ratio may appear elevated to value‑focused investors, possibly deterring some buyers and affecting demand for the stock.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AEM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong EPS Growth Outlook
Agnico Eagle projects a 64% increase in earnings per share for 2025, reflecting robust operational performance and disciplined cost management.
Robust Gold Production Expansion
The company aims for 20‑30% gold production growth by 2030, driven by key projects such as Odyssey, Detour Lake expansion, and Hope Bay development.
Aggressive Debt Reduction & Cash Flow
Agnico Eagle has delivered record free cash flow and is aggressively reducing debt, maintaining a low debt‑to‑equity ratio that supports financial flexibility.
Strategic Asset Portfolio
Strategic acquisitions—including Hope Bay and the merger with Kirkland Lake Gold—have positioned Agnico as the industry’s highest‑quality senior gold producer with assets in safe jurisdictions.
Lower‑Risk Production Focus
The company’s strategy prioritizes production in lower‑risk jurisdictions, enhancing stability and reducing exposure to operational uncertainties.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AEM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$178.14
52W Range Position
49%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$103.38
+72.3% from the low
52-Week High
$255.24
-30.2% from the high
1 Month
-14.56%
3 Month
-5.97%
YTD
+4.5%
1 Year
+55.9%
3Y CAGR
+43.9%
5Y CAGR
+21.7%
10Y CAGR
+14.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AEM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.8x
vs 9.2x median
+39% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+31.7%
vs +35.1% median
-9% below peer median
Net Margin
37.5%
vs 30.5% median
+23% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $89.2B | 12.8x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +33.4% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $120.8B | 10.5x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +26.1% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $56.9B | 23.1x | +42.4% | 63.6% | Buy | +21.8% |
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $34.5B | 9.2x | +29.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +46.7% |
AU AU AngloGold Ashanti Plc | $45.9B | 8.4x | +35.0% | 27.6% | Buy | +46.2% |
EGO EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation | $5.8B | 6.9x | +35.8% | 28.0% | Hold | +79.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AEM Dividend and Capital Return
AEM returns 1.6% total yield, led by a 0.81% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
0.81%
Payout Ratio
16.3%
How AEM Splits Its Return
Div 0.81%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 0.81%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
11.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$683M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
501M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% |
| 2024 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.1% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | -8.6% | 0.5% | 3.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsAEM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $238, implying +33.4% from the current price of $178. The bear case scenario is $49 and the bull case is $317.
02What is the AEM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AEM is $238 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $304 (+70.7% from today), and the low-end target is $189 (+6.1%). The base case model target is $291.
03Is Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) stock overvalued in 2026?
AEM trades at 12.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AEM in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Agnico Eagle’s profitability is tightly linked to gold price movements. (2) Operational Challenges — The company has faced operational setbacks, notably limitations with its #3 Shaft that have disrupted mining output. (3) Geopolitical & Environmental Factors — AEM operates in multiple jurisdictions, exposing it to geopolitical instability and evolving environmental regulations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Agnico Eagle Mines Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AEM will report consensus revenue of $15.6B (+31.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.13 (+37.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.4B in revenue.
06When does Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AEM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Agnico Eagle Mines Limited generate?
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 37.1%. AEM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($683M TTM).