Upside case
Bull case
$247+48.3%
AEM would need investors to value it at roughly 18x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 31 covering AEM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$248
+48.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$118 – $247
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $83.5B
AEM price targets
Three scenarios for where AEM stock could go
Current
~$167
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $167
Bear
$118
Base
$188
Bull
$247
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$188+12.6%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$118-29.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push AEM down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited
AEM · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Agnico Eagle Mines is a senior gold mining company that explores for, develops, and operates gold mines primarily in Canada, Mexico, and Finland. It generates nearly all its revenue from gold sales — with minor contributions from silver, zinc, and copper byproducts — through its portfolio of long-life, low-cost mines. The company's competitive advantage lies in its geographically concentrated, politically stable asset base in tier-one mining jurisdictions and its operational excellence in underground mining.
Market Cap
$83.5B
Revenue TTM
$11.9B
Net Income TTM
$4.4B
Net Margin
37.5%
AEM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.94/$1.83
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.16/$1.76
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.69/$2.58
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.40/$3.19
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.94/$1.83 | +6.0% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.16/$1.76 | +22.7% | $3.0B/$3.4B | -11.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.69/$2.58 | +4.3% | $3.5B/$3.4B | +3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.40/$3.19 | +6.6% | $4.0B/$4.0B | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.7B
+15.7% YoY
FY2
$16.2B
+17.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.72
-1.4% YoY
FY2
$10.22
+17.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
FCF Margin: 37.1%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.19
Expected Revenue
$3.9B
AEM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AEM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Canada
92.2%
+49.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Canada is the largest reported region at 92.2%, up 49.0% YoY.
AEM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $133 — implies -20.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AEM
18.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
23% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
AEM
18.8x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
20% discount
vs AEM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.8x
vs
5Y Average
22.2x
15% discount
Forward PE
12.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-35%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-23%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-20%
5Y Avg
22.2x
-15%
PEG Ratio
0.56x
S&P 500
1.66x
-66%
Basic Materials
1.23x
-54%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-33%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-8%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+12%
Price/FCF
19.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-5%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-32%
5Y Avg
28.1x
-30%
Price/Sales
7.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+127%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+273%
5Y Avg
4.7x
+50%
Dividend Yield
0.87%
S&P 500
1.91%
-55%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-38%
5Y Avg
1.95%
-55%
| Metric | AEM | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg AEM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.2x | 18.8x-35% | 14.9x-18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.8x | 24.4x-23% | 23.6x-20% | 22.2x-15% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.56x | 1.66x-66% | 1.23x-54% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.2x | 15.2x-33% | 11.0x | 9.0x+12% |
| Price/FCF | 19.6x | 20.7x | 29.0x-32% | 28.1x-30% |
| Price/Sales | 7.0x | 3.1x+127% | 1.9x+273% | 4.7x+50% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.87% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.95% |
AEM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAEM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AEM generates $4.4B in free cash flow at a 37.1% margin — 21.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+44.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
57.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
52.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
37.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
37.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
21.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.7%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$683M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
16.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
501M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAEM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Cost inflation
2026 cash costs are expected to rise by ~$100/oz due to Canadian dollar strength and royalty inflation.
Lower
Dividend yield
The dividend yield is relatively low at approximately 0.8%, though there is potential for future increases.
Medium
Production cost risks
Higher cash costs could pressure margins despite steady production guidance of 3.3-3.5M oz in 2026.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AEM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Gold price upside
Thesis suggests gold prices will continue to rise in 2026, benefiting Agnico Eagle as a gold producer.
Accommodative Fed policy
Expected loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is bullish for gold, supporting AEM's profitability.
Strong stock performance
AEM has delivered 125% returns over the past year, demonstrating strong market momentum.
2026 growth potential
Analysts highlight significant upside potential for Agnico Eagle by 2026, with robust margins and consistency.
Diversified precious metals
Company explores and produces gold, silver, copper, and zinc, providing diversified exposure to precious metals.
Market leadership
Agnico Eagle is Canada's largest mining company, benefiting from scale and operational advantages.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AEM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$166.66
52W Range Position
37%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$114.60
+45.4% from the low
52-Week High
$255.24
-34.7% from the high
1 Month
-7.00%
3 Month
-15.01%
YTD
-2.2%
1 Year
+35.9%
3Y CAGR
+50.7%
5Y CAGR
+21.6%
10Y CAGR
+12.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AEM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.2x
vs 9.0x median
+36% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.7%
vs +13.7% median
+15% above peer median
Net Margin
37.5%
vs 31.1% median
+20% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $83.5B | 12.2x | +15.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +48.9% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $115.0B | 10.1x | +16.2% | 30.5% | Buy | +38.1% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $55.7B | 22.7x | +15.7% | 65.5% | Buy | +38.7% |
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $31.9B | 8.8x | +13.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +70.0% |
AU AU AngloGold Ashanti Plc | $45.9B | 9.0x | +11.9% | 31.1% | Buy | +62.9% |
EGO EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation | $6.5B | 8.2x | +12.5% | 28.0% | Hold | +59.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AEM Dividend and Capital Return
AEM returns 1.7% total yield, led by a 0.87% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
0.87%
Payout Ratio
16.3%
How AEM Splits Its Return
Div 0.87%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 0.87%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
11.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$683M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
501M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% |
| 2024 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.1% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | -8.6% | 0.5% | 3.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsAEM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $248, implying +48.9% from the current price of $167. The bear case scenario is $118 and the bull case is $247.
02What is the AEM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AEM is $248 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $310 (+86.0% from today), and the low-end target is $210 (+26.0%). The base case model target is $188.
03Is Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) stock overvalued in 2026?
AEM trades at 12.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AEM in 2026 are: (1) Cost inflation — 2026 cash costs are expected to rise by ~$100/oz due to Canadian dollar strength and royalty inflation. (2) Production cost risks — Higher cash costs could pressure margins despite steady production guidance of 3. (3) Dividend yield — The dividend yield is relatively low at approximately 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Agnico Eagle Mines Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AEM will report consensus revenue of $13.7B (+15.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.72 (-1.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.2B in revenue.
06When does Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) report its next earnings?
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $3.19 and revenue of $3.9B. Over recent quarters, AEM has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Agnico Eagle Mines Limited generate?
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 37.1%. AEM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($683M TTM).