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AGRO
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AGROAdecoagro S.A.
$9.93$5.7B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
Live BreakoutsStock ScreenerOwnership
AGRO logo

Adecoagro S.A.

AGRO
NYSE · Farm Products
$9.93
At close - Oct 1, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$5.6B
P/E-605.5x
52W High$15.89
Volume592.88K
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Volatile Commodity Cycles Drive Earnings and Cash Flow Instability

Adecoagro's investment thesis is centered on its position as a low-cost, vertically integrated agricultural producer, but its financial profile is dominated by extreme volatility in revenue, margins, and cash flows, which are heavily tied to commodity price cy...

GrowthMixed
ProfitabilityStrained
ValuationExpensive
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

AGRO price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

1/12 Beats

EPS beat 1 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-4047% Peers

P/E is 4047% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 44 · Lag

Laggard (Underperforming 56% of market)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystConfirmed earnings · Nov 10
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue growth is highly volatile, swinging from a 39.0% YoY increase in 2026Q2 to a 35.5% decline in 2025Q3, while gross margins have fluctuated between 19.5% and 42.2% over the past ten quarters, indicating significant exposure to commodity price and input cost swings.

Analyst Consensus+38.6% target
Hold(8 analysts)
3 Buy4 Hold1 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Attractive valuation metrics

AGRO's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 21.68 and 19.30 respectively suggest reasonable valuation levels as of February 20th.

Bullish analyst coverage

Multiple bullish theses on AGRO have been published by TradersPro's Substack and Fundamental Deep Dive's YouTube channel, indicating positive analyst sentiment.

Potential upside from current price

The stock was trading at $9.20 as of February 20th and $8.36 as of January 13th, with analysts suggesting upside potential from these levels.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 10/3/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
AGRO+29.53%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+11.83%
1-Year Return
AGRO+33.15%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+14.29%
3-Year Return
AGRO-2.26%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+76.01%
5-Year Return
AGRO+27.53%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+74.76%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y Low
-615.9x
Forward P/E
6.7x
EV/EBITDA100th %ile
21.5x
FCF YieldCash Flow
0.4%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
-615.9x
41.4x
0th· Low
EV/EBITDA
21.5x
11.9x
100th· High
Price/FCF
276.6x
32.7x
100th· High
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$4.81-51.6%
Base (Fair)$10.60+5.0%
Bull$17.13+72.5%
$4.81 Bear$10.60 Base$17.13 Bull
Current Market Price: $9.93
Trades at a 6.3% discount to Base DCF ($10.60)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$1.43B-6.0% YoY
Net income
-$8M-109.0% YoY
Free cash flow
$21M-68.3% YoY
Operating margin
4.7%-7.3 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)1.8%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)-0.5%
Piotroski Score3 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate1/12 (9%)
Revenue Beat Rate7/12 (64%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Aug 11, 2026
$0.13-76.1%
vs $0.54
$531M-11.8%
vs $602M
Q2 2026
May 11, 2026
-$0.24-196.8%
vs $0.25
$399M-2.5%
vs $409M
Q2 2026
Mar 16, 2026
-$0.18-107.8%
vs -$0.09
$416M+11.8%
vs $372M
Q4 2025
Nov 11, 2025
$0.06+7.3%
vs $0.06
$304M-25.7%
vs $409M
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
PRNewsWire·4d ago
Adecoagro Announces Early Redemption of its 6.000% Senior Notes due 2027

LUXEMBOURG, Sept. 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Adecoagro S.A.

GuruFocus·Sep 18, 2026
Fitch Ratings Initiates Coverage of Adecoagro with a BB Corporate Credit Rating and Stable Outlook

Fitch Ratings Initiates Coverage of Adecoagro with a BB Corporate Credit Rating and Stable OutlookPR NewswireLUXEMBOURG, September 18, 2026LUXEMBOURG, September

PRNewsWire·Sep 18, 2026
Fitch Ratings Initiates Coverage of Adecoagro with a BB Corporate Credit Rating and Stable Outlook

LUXEMBOURG, September 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO) ("Adecoagro" or the "Company"), a leading sustainable production company in South America, announced today that Fitch Ratings ("Fitch") has initiated coverage of the Company and assigned 'BB' Long-Term Local Currency and Foreign Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs), with a Stable Outlook.

Defense World·Sep 17, 2026
WINTON GROUP Ltd Makes New Investment in Adecoagro S.A. $AGRO

WINTON GROUP Ltd acquired a new stake in Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO) in the second quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor acquired 45,882 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $438,000. Several other large investors also recently modified their holdings

Filtered for Adecoagro S.A.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark AGRO against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
AGRO logoAGROAdecoagro S.A.Current
$9.93$5.6B-605.49-6%-0.58%-0.52%0.69%
CRESY logoCRESYCresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria
$11.36$736.97M9999.0028.51%16.79%7.31%—
CAAP logoCAAPCorporacion America Airports S.A.
$24.28$3.96B15.976.45%13.89%15.96%—
LND logoLNDBrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas
$3.43$341.68M12.86-85.08%-4.92%-1.26%—
TSN logoTSNTyson Foods, Inc.
$50.47$17.89B37.112.12%1.03%3.15%—
ADM logoADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company
$79.52$38.33B35.66-6.15%2.16%7.63%—

Compare AGRO vs Peers

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs CRESY

Most directly comparable listed peer for AGRO.

Scale Benchmark

vs DE

Larger-name benchmark to compare AGRO against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs CRESY, CAAP, LND, TSN

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AGRO Frequently Asked Questions

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Adecoagro S.A.'s revenue?

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) reported $1.65B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 806% increase from $182.2M in 2007.

How fast is Adecoagro S.A. growing?

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) saw revenue decline by 6.0% over the past year.

Is AGRO profitable?

Yes, Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) is profitable, generating $49.5M in net income for fiscal year 2025 (-0.6% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does AGRO pay dividends?

Yes, Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) pays a dividend with a yield of 0.69%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is AGRO's return on equity?

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) has a return on equity (ROE) of -0.5%. Negative ROE indicates the company is unprofitable.

What is Adecoagro S.A.'s free cash flow?

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) generated $47.7M in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in AGRO back in 2007?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 19+ years of data

See returns →