Upside case
Bull case
$216+175.0%
AIG would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
American International Group, Inc. (AIG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
41
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 41 covering AIG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
24
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$86
+9.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $216
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.1B
AIG price targets
Three scenarios for where AIG stock could go
Current
~$78
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $78
Base
$91
Bull
$216
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$91+15.3%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
American International Group, Inc.
AIG · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - DiversifiedDecember year-end
American International Group is a global insurance and financial services company offering property-casualty, life, and retirement products. It generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums — with general insurance contributing roughly 60% and life & retirement about 40% — along with investment income from its massive portfolio. Its key advantage is global scale and underwriting expertise across diverse risk categories, supported by a strong brand and distribution network.
Market Cap
$42.1B
Revenue TTM
$26.6B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
11.9%
AIG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.81/$1.60
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.20/$1.72
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.96/$1.90
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.11/$1.89
Revenue
$7.0B/$7.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.81/$1.60 | +13.1% | $7.0B/$6.8B | +3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.20/$1.72 | +27.9% | $6.4B/$6.8B | -6.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.96/$1.90 | +3.2% | $6.7B/$6.9B | -2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.11/$1.89 | +11.6% | $7.0B/$7.0B | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$26.9B
+1.1% YoY
FY2
$26.7B
-1.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.34
+8.8% YoY
FY2
$6.26
-1.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.5B
FCF Margin: 13.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AIG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AIG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $73M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Corporate Nonsegment and Reconciling Items
100.0%
-91.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International
52.6%
-1.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Corporate Nonsegment and Reconciling Items is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 91.6% YoY.
International is the largest reported region at 52.6%, down 1.0% YoY.
AIG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $77 — implies -1.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
1.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AIG
14.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
42% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
AIG
14.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+8% premium
vs AIG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.5x
vs
5Y Average
12.1x
+19% premium
Forward PE
10.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-47%
Financial Services
10.4x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-42%
Financial Services
13.3x
+8%
5Y Avg
12.1x
+19%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Financial Services
1.01x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-55%
Financial Services
11.4x
-40%
5Y Avg
7.6x
-10%
Price/FCF
12.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-40%
Financial Services
10.6x
+20%
5Y Avg
11.4x
+11%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-50%
Financial Services
2.2x
-29%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-1%
Dividend Yield
2.18%
S&P 500
1.87%
+17%
Financial Services
2.70%
-19%
5Y Avg
2.06%
+6%
| Metric | AIG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg AIG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.0x | 19.1x-47% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.5x | 25.1x-42% | 13.3x | 12.1x+19% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.01x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8x | 15.2x-55% | 11.4x-40% | 7.6x-10% |
| Price/FCF | 12.7x | 21.1x-40% | 10.6x+20% | 11.4x+11% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-50% | 2.2x-29% | 1.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.18% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 2.06% |
AIG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAIG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AIG posts 11.9% net margin with 7.7% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-2.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.83
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
7.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.9B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
16.0%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
13.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
31.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
537M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageAIG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Credit Default Swaps Legacy
AIG's 2008 collapse stemmed from insuring trillions of dollars in mortgage‑backed securities via credit default swaps without adequate reserves. The resulting $85 billion government bailout highlighted systemic risk exposure. Ongoing regulatory scrutiny and investor perception may still affect capital costs and market confidence.
High Risk
Operational & Financial Health
As of April 2026, AIG's current ratio stands at 0.6x, indicating limited short‑term liquidity, while its debt‑to‑equity ratio is 24.4x, reflecting high leverage. These metrics suggest potential constraints on funding flexibility and increased vulnerability to interest‑rate shocks.
High Risk
Underwriting Performance Challenges
Recent analyses show declining underwriting margins in AIG’s Convex and EG businesses, limiting growth potential. Inaccurate risk pricing and higher claim frequency erode profitability, potentially impacting future earnings and dividend sustainability.
High Risk
Catastrophic Event Exposure
AIG’s insurance portfolio exposes it to large‑scale natural disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes. Significant claims from such events can spike losses, strain reserves, and compress net income during severe weather seasons.
Medium
Competitive & Macro Environment
AIG operates in a highly competitive insurance market where premium growth is sensitive to macroeconomic slowdown. Reduced consumer spending and lower investment yields can compress revenue streams and limit expansion opportunities.
Medium
Valuation vs Peers
AIG’s price‑to‑earnings and price‑to‑book ratios appear elevated relative to industry peers, suggesting potential overvaluation. Historical underperformance against competitors raises concerns about future earnings growth and shareholder returns.
Medium
Risk Management Model Gaps
Historical failures in AIG’s risk models, particularly around collateral calls and market‑value fluctuations, exposed the company to unanticipated losses. Persistent model inadequacies could impair future risk assessment and capital allocation decisions.
Medium
Corporate Culture Risks
A culture historically driven by short‑term gains and aggressive risk‑taking, tied to executive compensation, may still influence decision‑making. Residual cultural risk could lead to suboptimal risk appetite and governance challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AIG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strategic Shift to High‑Return P&C & Specialty Lines
After the Corebridge split, AIG has pivoted to higher‑return Property & Casualty underwriting, specialty lines, and capital‑light fee businesses. The realignment focuses on disciplined underwriting, reinsurance optimization, and selective acquisitions to lift returns.
Robust Underwriting Performance in 2025
AIG’s 2025 calendar combined ratio was 90.1% and the accident‑year combined ratio 88.3%. Underwriting income rose 22% YoY to $2.3 billion, while net income was $3.1 billion and adjusted after‑tax income $4.0 billion, a 43% increase.
Specialty Lines Expansion Across Global Markets
The company is expanding specialty commercial P&C lines—excess & surplus, financial lines, cyber, environmental, warranty, and high‑net‑worth segments—deepening its North America and London presence and selectively growing in EMEA and Asia.
AI‑First Digital Transformation Initiative
AIG is investing heavily in generative AI, advanced data architecture, and a digital‑twin strategy, using AI for underwriting and claims. The goal is a sub‑30% expense ratio by 2027, supported by an AI and data engineering innovation hub.
Aggressive Capital Returns Boost EPS
In 2025, AIG returned $6.8 billion to shareholders—$5.8 billion in share repurchases and $1 billion in dividends. Shares outstanding are expected to decline 7% annually over the next three years, lifting earnings per share.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AIG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.47
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$71.25
+10.1% from the low
52-Week High
$87.46
-10.3% from the high
1 Month
+2.68%
3 Month
+3.30%
YTD
-6.9%
1 Year
-5.5%
3Y CAGR
+13.4%
5Y CAGR
+9.9%
10Y CAGR
+3.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AIG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.0x
vs 8.2x median
+23% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.1%
vs +1.8% median
-38% below peer median
Net Margin
11.9%
vs 12.9% median
-8% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AIG AIG American International Group, Inc. | $42.1B | 10.0x | +1.1% | 11.9% | Hold | +9.1% |
MET MET MetLife, Inc. | $52.8B | 8.2x | +6.3% | 5.4% | Buy | +20.8% |
PRU PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $34.9B | 7.4x | -8.2% | 5.9% | Hold | +3.8% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.9B | 10.2x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.3% |
TRV TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $65.2B | 10.8x | -1.4% | 12.9% | Hold | +3.9% |
ALL ALL The Allstate Corporation | $56.2B | 8.1x | +1.8% | 18.1% | Buy | +11.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AIG Dividend and Capital Return
AIG returns capital mainly through $5.8B/year in buybacks (13.9% buyback yield), with a modest 2.18% dividend — combining for 16.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
16.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
13.9%
Dividend Yield
2.18%
Payout Ratio
31.5%
How AIG Splits Its Return
Div 2.18%
Buyback 13.9%
Dividend 2.18%Buybacks 13.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.0%
5Y Div CAGR
6.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
74M
Approx. Share Reduction
13.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
537M
At 13.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.75 | +12.2% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| 2024 | $1.56 | +11.4% | 14.9% | 17.0% |
| 2023 | $1.40 | +9.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% |
| 2022 | $1.28 | 0.0% | 10.4% | 12.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsAIG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is American International Group, Inc. (AIG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $86, implying +9.1% from the current price of $78.
02What is the AIG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AIG is $86 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+21.1% from today), and the low-end target is $80 (+1.9%). The base case model target is $91.
03Is American International Group, Inc. (AIG) stock overvalued in 2026?
AIG trades at 10.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for American International Group, Inc. (AIG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AIG in 2026 are: (1) Credit Default Swaps Legacy — AIG's 2008 collapse stemmed from insuring trillions of dollars in mortgage‑backed securities via credit default swaps without adequate reserves. (2) Operational & Financial Health — As of April 2026, AIG's current ratio stands at 0. (3) Underwriting Performance Challenges — Recent analyses show declining underwriting margins in AIG’s Convex and EG businesses, limiting growth potential. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is American International Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AIG will report consensus revenue of $26.9B (+1.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.34 (+8.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $26.7B in revenue.
06When does American International Group, Inc. (AIG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AIG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does American International Group, Inc. generate?
American International Group, Inc. (AIG) generated $3.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.2%. AIG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($5.8B TTM).